The title race
When Premier League festivities resume on Boxing Day the smart money is on Arsenal and Manchester City slugging it out for the title until May in what could be a contest for the ages. Leading their sides in a classic master-apprentice matchup is City’s near-peerless manager, Pep Guardiola, and his former assistant and now Arsenal No 1, Mikel Arteta.
The tale of the tape thus far is fascinating. Arteta’s pretenders are the young thrusters who have a five-point lead but could be without Gabriel Jesus until February. Their goal count is 33 with 11 conceded, the division’s joint lowest, and in captain Martin Ødegaard (who is 24), Bukayo Saka (21), Gabriel Martinelli (21), Ben White (25), Aaron Ramsdale (24) and William Saliba (21) Arsenal have an effervescent core being led by the vibrant Arteta.
Guardiola’s seasoned campaigners are reigning champions, have scored a division-high 40, and their 18-goal phenomenon Erling Haaland enjoyed six weeks off before returning to score against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup. City have plundered four of the last five Premier League titles and Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish are some of their other headline acts.
In this World Cup-interrupted season both sides have played 14 games but are yet to meet. Keep 15 February and 26 April in the diary free for City’s visit to the Emirates and the reverse fixture to watch how each will hope to unpick the other plus, of course, the riveting sideshow of two animated managers trying to maintain cool on the touchline.
Viewers of Arsenal’s All or Nothing, which took in last term, were offered an insight into Arteta’s at times left-field methods (a floating lightbulb featured in one team talk) and wholly likable persona. They will be impressed at how his team have gone from the late-season collapse that ended in a fifth-place finish, featured in the Amazon documentary, to this season’s apparent real deal. Arsenal’s sole reverse has been at Manchester United and they have dropped only two points since.
City have two defeats on the card. November’s fractious 1-0 downing by Liverpool at Anfield in which Jürgen Klopp was sent off. And Brentford’s smash-and-grab 2-1 win at Etihad Stadium in their final outing before the Qatar 2022 cessation.
Five points is not a massive margin but it indicates an Arsenal side who are not going anywhere between now and the spring months when the championship is decided. Newcastle United, a further two points behind City, and Tottenham (three), may believe they can still force themselves into the contest but realistically this seems destined to unfold as a storybook toe-to-toe of two prizefighters: the side who were last England’s best in 2004 and the current holders.
Battle for the top four
Only three Premier League teams have broken the usual suspects’ vice-like grip on Champions League qualification in the past 20 years – Leicester, when winning the title in 2016, Everton in 2005 and Newcastle in 2003 (only the top three in England qualified when they finished fourth in 2001-02). It is St James’ Park that houses the biggest threat to the closed shop once again. History may suggest otherwise, but on pre-World Cup form the odds must be firmly on Eddie Howe delivering a top-four finish in the first full season since the money started flowing in from Saudi Arabia.
Taking the title race as a shootout between Arsenal and Manchester City – and Newcastle may beg to differ given their winning streak before the break – six teams are left challenging for the remaining two Champions League spots, from Howe’s side in third to a plummeting Chelsea in eighth. Newcastle, who resume their league campaign at Leicester on Boxing Day, have presented the strongest case for inclusion by far in a season when they have lost once in all competitions and won seven of eight league games prior to the World Cup. There could be no clearer statement about their credentials than the performance that secured the 2-1 win at Tottenham.
Fourth-placed Spurs remain in contention but were faltering before the World Cup. Antonio Conte was left in no doubt as to the misgivings over his style among supporters during a run of three defeats in five league games, with a Carabao Cup exit at Nottingham Forest thrown in for bad measure. Harry Kane’s laboured performances in Qatar and the burden carried by Son Heung-min will be an added cause for concern. Richarlison’s elavated status and self-belief after a fine campaign with Brazil offers the counterbalance.
Graham Potter has greater problems across London having made an underwhelming start to his Chelsea reign. The 2021 European champions find themselves eight points adrift of fourth place, albeit with a game in hand on Spurs, having not won a Premier League game since 16 October. New co-owner Todd Boehly may already be sweating on his investment and decision-making.
Potter’s former club Brighton are level on points with his new one but, despite an excellent recruitment strategy that was showcased on the World Cup stage, strength in depth may count against a sustained challenge over the next five months. All of which points to a potential duel between Manchester United and Liverpool for the golden ticket their respective US owners have, at various times in their tenure, taken as read. United are now unburdened from the Cristiano Ronaldo saga. Liverpool had just started to click again when the league paused and have a habit of finishing strongly under Klopp.
But they are all playing catchup to the growing threat from the north-east.
Relegation scrap
At this time of year there are usually a handful of teams particularly short of festive cheer having swallowed the statistic that only three clubs bottom at Christmas have escaped the drop since the Premier League’s inception 30 years ago, Leicester the last to do so in 2014-15. But the picture is a little skewed this season – teams have played a couple of games fewer at this stage than in years gone by – and the World Cup break provided the perfect opportunity to reset, reinvigorate and, as the modern-day manager will almost certainly testify, get on the grass with their players.
A nine-point blanket covers 11 teams from ninth-placed Fulham to bottom club Wolves. If anything, perhaps those that head into Boxing Day in the relegation zone will be more optimistic than a couple above the dotted line. Julen Lopetegui will take charge of his first league game with Wolves at Everton on Monday, with his arrival at the centre of the restructuring that has brought a new sporting director and, they hope, Matheus Cunha as the first of several new faces in the January window.
Southampton, too, are hoping for an uplift under Nathan Jones after one win from their past 10 league matches, the worst run in the division. Nottingham Forest’s fortunes turned with victory against Liverpool in October – they have lost once since, at leaders Arsenal – and a move to a more pragmatic approach is paying off. Evangelos Marinakis spent around £150m in the summer and Gustavo Scarpa, a free agent who this month became their 23rd signing of the season, is unlikely to be the last through the door at the City Ground.
Forest are not the only team with grand plans. Unai Emery was not attracted to Aston Villa by the lure of a relegation battle and Leicester, after an ominous start, will hope to continue making headway under Brendan Rodgers after four wins from their past five games. The heat is on for Frank Lampard at Everton and for David Moyes at West Ham, with both teams a point above the bottom three after a worrying run before the break.
Bournemouth, the 10th top-flight club under American ownership after the billionaire Bill Foley’s £120m takeover, are also determined to make a splash. The 78-year-old Foley, who recently described himself as a dictator, said he knows his aggressive approach to business could irk rivals. “I’m not here to make friends with other team owners,” he said, with Bournemouth targeting up to five new signings after giving Gary O’Neil the manager’s job.