President Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near the Ukraine border, and his defence ministry says “combat readiness” drills are underway. But according to his exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian president is yet to join Putin’s military forces in Ukraine as he is unsure his troops would follow his orders after winning a fraudulent election.
Speaking to Politico, Ms Tsikhanouskaya said: “I’m sure that he [Lukashenko] would give the order to the Belarusian army to participate in this invasion — if he was sure they would fight.
“Just imagine the situation if he made this order, the Belarusian army went across the border, and they defect, they change sides, they hide, because they actually don’t want to fight the Ukrainians. Just imagine his reputation in front of Putin, in front of the Kremlin — it would be an epic fail.”
She added: “I think that the Russian command doesn’t trust the Belarusian army.
“They are not sure they would fulfil the order.”
It comes as Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told the Russian Izvestia newspaper that Belarus has given its security forces broad powers under to prevent or respond to provocations from neighbouring countries, on Friday.
“The head of our country held a number of meetings with law enforcement agencies, and a counter-terrorist operation regime was introduced,” Izvestia cited Makei as saying.
“There was information that some neighbouring states were planning provocations on, pretty much, the seizure of certain sections of the territory of Belarus.”
The counter-terrorist operation regime gives security forces broad rights, including detentions to verify identities, barring movement, wiretapping and control of all communication and unimpeded entry of agents on any premises.
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On Monday, Lukashenko said at a security meeting that he had ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near Ukraine in response to what he said was a clear threat to Belarus from Kyiv and its backers in the West.
The Belta state news agency reported that at the meeting Lukashenko said that he had ordered the country’s intelligence agency, the KGB, to carry out necessary counter-terrorist measures.
“We need to have options for counter-action, including military ones,” Belta cited Lukashenko as saying. “(That’s) in order to identify and localise threats in a timely manner, and, if necessary, adequately respond to any military manifestations against Belarus.”
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Belarus shares borders with three NATO members, a factor that may also be part of Putin’s calculations as he seeks to draw his ally into the war.
“It brings him much closer to NATO’s borders. Putin can then say: ‘I’m bringing the war to you. Do you really want it?’ What happens if a missile goes astray?” a senior European official said.
Lukashenko has not specified the size and role of the joint force he announced on Monday, though he said then that he expected the arrival of thousands of troops on Belarusian territory.