The European Union still faces the threat of Russia’s gas blackmail after Vladimir Putin allowed the gas flows to resume in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. European leaders worried Russia’s gas energy giant Gazprom might not allow gas flows after 10-day annual maintenance from July 11-21. However, Putin could leverage that threat again later in time in a bid to force the EU to lift its economic sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a defence analyst warned.
TRT World’s defence analyst Oubai Shahbandar said: “It’s looking increasingly likely like much of Western Europe remains exposed to what EU leaders are calling energy blackmail by the Kremlin.
“Russian state-backed exporter Gazprom has already halted or reduced deliveries to 12 EU countries in fears of the Kremlin using the energy card to Europe renewed when Russian turned off gas from the Nord Stream pipeline for nearly 10 days.
“But the Russians have renewed gas flows on Nord Stream 1 but only a fraction of its capacities. As you can see here, it’s that pipeline going to Germany.
“Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin could still shut off the gas for good in retaliation for European sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.”
Mr Shahbandar said: “Now, Putin has also strongly hinted that the disruption of gas through Nord Stream 1 was a bid to pressure the Germans to certify the more lucrative and recently built Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
“That certification was frozen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the White House had dropped opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last year – a move for which they were heavily criticised.
“Now, Russia supplies about one-third of Europe’s natural gas go through multiple pipelines.
“And Ukraine’s President Zelensky has called Europe’s dependency on these pipelines a ‘dangerous geopolitical weapon’ of the Kremlin.”
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Looking at the consequences, a total cut-off could have on the EU, Mr Shahbandar said: “A sudden cut would have serious consequences. European storage targets for this upcoming winter would not be met, which means that gas would have to be rationed during winter and European citizens would have to lower the thermostat and significantly cut hot water usage.
“Now multiple industries may also have to be temporarily shut down this winter. And an economic recession could very much ensue if that happens.”
For now, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline’s flows are back at 40 percent capacity, leaving enough time for the EU to fill in its gas supplies ahead of winter.
The European Commission President called out the energy “blackmail” perpetrated by the Kremlin and called on EU member states “to prepare for a potential disruption of Russian gas.”
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