What New York walk-year player is having his best season, in part, by proving he can stay healthy and play center field at a high level?
This is a trick question because, yes, the Yankees’ Aaron Judge is an answer. But he is not the only answer. Because the Mets’ Brandon Nimmo is making quite a free agent case, too.
“You are going to see a big chase for Nimmo,” Scott Boras said.
Of course, there is bias here. Boras is Nimmo’s agent. But it lined up with what two agents who don’t represent Nimmo, plus three front-office executives said. Those more neutral observers all liked similar elements about Nimmo’s game that Boras had defined for me. Notably:
1. He plays center field. And he doesn’t just play it. These days he plays it well. The Mets gave Starling Marte a four-year, $78 million contract and moved him to right field. Fangraphs actually has Nimmo ranked as the top defender in center. He was fifth among center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved and also Outs Above Average, tied in the latter with defensive stalwarts Harrison Bader, Byron Buxton and Kevin Kiermaier.
Also, if you want a shortstop in the upcoming free agent market, you should have Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner from whom to pick. But good center fielders are harder to secure. The next best is probably Boston’s Enrique Hernandez, who at 30 is a year older than Nimmo and is in the midst of a poor season after a superb 2020. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins and Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds never come off the trade rumor merry-go-round.
2. Nimmo can bat leadoff. He does not have a traditional skill for the role because, like Bernie Williams, he is fast but does not have a good instinctual feel for stealing bases — he began the weekend with no steals and was just 20-out-of-32 for his career. Nimmo also lacks a skill modern front offices like in leadoff batters — the ability to ambush quickly with homers.
But he has the most vital leadoff skill — Nimmo is a master at getting on base. On-base percentage is in the midst of falling for a third straight year, down to .308 entering the weekend — the lowest since 1968, the Year of the Pitcher. In the three-year window during which on-base percentage had fallen (2020-22), Nimmo’s mark was .400.
3. Nimmo has proven that playing in the biggest market does not deter him. If you think that doesn’t matter, then let’s travel to July 29 of last year. That was the day Joey Gallo was traded to the Yankees. If asked that day who would receive more money when both became free agents after the 2022 season, Gallo or Nimmo, the overwhelming sentiment would have been Gallo. Now? Gallo’s time in New York has exposed his game and raised greater questions about his makeup.
These days, we would expect Nimmo to make more (probably far more) than Gallo. But how much more? And how much in general? That is tough to assess.
One of the agents said, “We have all this information and teams are so smart about how they weigh years of information, yet many remain so easily swayed by what happens the next 4 1/2 months.” The other agent said, “This case has a lot to do with the rest of the season — and that is most of the season.”
That is because the biggest thing for Nimmo is that he needs to play and, thus, prove his health. He has exceeded 92 games in just one of his first six seasons. Positively, Nimmo fouled a ball off his knee Tuesday, limped out of the game with a bruised quadriceps and was playing the next day. This season, he appeared in 35 of the Mets’ first 40 games.
“I know it is not scientific, but guys who get hurt, those are the guys who keep getting hurt,” one of the executives said. “How many players who had trouble staying healthy in their 20s then suddenly were healthy in their 30s. Because here you are going to be buying all years in the 30s. That is a lot of risk for front offices that have become more and more risk averse.”
The Twins, before the season, reached a seven-year, $100 million deal with bonuses for games played and high MVP finishes for Buxton, a center fielder who like Nimmo is productive when healthy (and better all around than Nimmo), but has been persistently injured. Is that the kind of template for Nimmo? One of the agents didn’t think so, noting that Boras recently got Nick Castellanos a five-year, $100 million free-agent pact with the Phillies and could probably make a good case that Nimmo is worth more for his all-around skills.
What is more? Boras also negotiated the seven-year deals for Shin-Soo Choo ($130 million) with the Rangers and Jacoby Ellsbury ($153 million) with the Yankees after the 2013 season. Both players are in the same Venn diagram skill-wise as Nimmo and in the same age range at free agency. Boras could argue that those are outdated contracts and Nimmo deserves more in a 2022-23 environment. Teams could argue that the deals for Choo, and especially Ellsbury, were disasters for the teams and not to be repeated.
Nimmo also has much in common with Brett Gardner — think on-base percentage, the ability to play center and speed (though Gardner did steal bases). In spring 2014, before entering his walk year, Gardner signed a four-year, $52 million extension that began the following season. He was a year older than Nimmo is now. Marte also has many of Nimmo’s attributes, though an elite ability to steal bases and excellent durability. He was three years older than Nimmo, however, in his walk year.
So you can see the large variance possibilities for Nimmo. It is why the rest of this season is so important to his case. Nimmo’s history does not scream substantial nine-figure contract. But he has skills desired in the marketplace. Thus, continuing a healthy, highly productive season for a New York contender could substantially impact his value skyward.