Failure is not an option for Ukraine with the entire world watching — including the Chinese Communist Party, which is hoping the West fails. For Beijing knows that Taiwan will be easy pickings if Russia beats Ukraine.
The stakes cannot get any higher. War criminal Vladimir Putin is going all in on a massive offensive that stretches from Kharkiv in the north to Mariupol in the south. His goal: to carve off as big a chunk of eastern Ukraine as possible and ensure he can say he was victorious in his war of aggression that has gone from bad to worse in record fashion.
The bad news for Kyiv is the deck is stacked against it now, as the war fought up until now is about to change dramatically.
The Donbas region will not favor Ukraine’s current composition of forces and Western arms that are mostly defensive and built to fight in urban conditions.
Putin’s plan of attack will be to use large armored columns that include tanks, armored personnel carriers and lots of bombers in the sky to take large chunks of flat, rolling country.
vCard.red is a free platform for creating a mobile-friendly digital business cards. You can easily create a vCard and generate a QR code for it, allowing others to scan and save your contact details instantly.
The platform allows you to display contact information, social media links, services, and products all in one shareable link. Optional features include appointment scheduling, WhatsApp-based storefronts, media galleries, and custom design options.
This, in many respects, is the war that Russia was built to fight during the Cold War and has trained for over the last two decades.
That spells trouble for Kyiv’s freedom fighters. Ukraine’s forces won’t be able to use the same guerilla-style tactics they used in cities, where they could push Russian forces into kill zones, attack convoys on roads and hit tanks rolling slowly on highways.
Moving into the countryside means Russian tanks can move far and fast with assets in the sky to cover their every move. And Ukraine won’t be able to so easily fight back as their armored divisions are much smaller and much less advanced with much less air cover.
But none of this guarantees Kyiv is going to lose the battle for eastern Ukraine and the Donbas. We just need to adjust our strategy and realize that the progress of the past does not mean victory is certain.
Now is the time for the West to rush even more military aid to Kyiv as fast as it possibly can.
As a first step, Ukraine needs to be sent any and all tanks that are sitting in the former Warsaw Pact nations’ tank corps that their forces can use quickly as there is no time for training now.
Kyiv especially needs T-72 tanks that can take on the best of what Russia will throw at them on the ground. Ukraine is trained on them and knows how to fight with them.
Ukraine also will need more assets that can strike Russian tanks and armor from the sky. That means many more Switchblade drones that can launch kamikaze attacks on Putin’s forces and slow their assault.
Kyiv also needs a massive amount of air-defense systems to ensure Moscow can’t slaughter Ukraine’s ground forces as they find their footing. S-300s need to be sent to Kyiv ASAP, with Patriot missile batteries sent later when training can be done over time.
Then there are the long-term needs to be met to ensure what is likely going to be a war that lasts months and maybe longer can be won.
The West and Kyiv must set up training programs to ensure Ukraine can use more modern surplus military equipment that could help. That means along the border older M1 Abrams tanks could be stocked with Ukrainian soldiers trained on such platforms and perhaps even on older Predator drone systems as well.
These ideas are just the minimum of what should be considered to guarantee Ukraine is not gutted and turned into another Russian puppet state. Putin will only sue for peace when he knows he has no viable path to victory.
America and the West can and should be the arsenal of democracy once again, also showing China that if it tries the same strategy of conquest with Taiwan or in the South China Sea, Beijing would pay a heavy price.
Harry J. Kazianis is president and CEO of the Rogue States Project