The wombat trail continues.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce press conference with Deputy Leader David Littleproud, Darwin 12:00pm ACST #ausvotes
— Political Alert (@political_alert) April 12, 2022
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Peter Hannam
Along with the ANZ’s consumer sentiment survey, NAB has chimed in with the release of their monthly business survey.
Generally the mood is buoyant, with Omicron disruptions apparently a fast fading memory (even if Covid deaths this year are already more than in 2020 and 2021, and still rising).
Business conditions, for instance, rose 9 points last month to be +18, the largest one-month jump since June 2020.
In trend terms, confidence remained strong “across all industries”, NAB said. By sector, confidence rose sharply (or is that, “accelerated”) in transport (up 16pts), construction (15pts), and for recreation & personal services (up 11pts).
Among the states, confidence was “strong across the board” and rose the most in Tasmania (up 21pts), SA (up 14pts) and WA (up 13pts), “while the other states were largely steady”.
“The retail sector drove much of the improvement in conditions,” says NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster. “That indicates household consumption continues to grow strongly with consumers undeterred by rising inflation, at least so far.”
But there is a cloud gathering – the pressure on costs and prices. Purchase costs, for instance, rose a record 4.2% in March, eclipsing the 3.2% rise seen in January. The three-month average of 3.4% was also the highest on record.
Notably, labour costs are rising but not at the gradient of purchase costs.
But NAB’s survey also showed cost and price growth measures rising to record levels last month. Purchase cost growth, for instance, reached 4.2% in quarterly terms, while labour cost growth – presumably a proxy for wages – rose 2.7%. #AusVotes2022 #auspol pic.twitter.com/PtyrzNbNgr
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) April 12, 2022
Since profitability seems to be holding up, that points to companies merrily being able to lift their prices accordingly.
“Importantly, it appears businesses have had little trouble passing on higher costs to consumers with prices – including retail prices – also rising at record rates,” Oster said, adding that the bank expects “very strong inflation in Q1 and likely Q2” when official numbers are released.
For the March quarter, the official CPI figures will drop on April 27, potentially an awkward number for the government. The June quarter data, though, won’t land until three months later, or well into the new term of the government.
The largest (and growing) part of Australia’s welfare spend is on the pension, which dwarfs the amount spent on unemployment benefits.
But given Scott Morrison’s line today about balancing budgets by “getting people off welfare and into jobs where they pay taxes” it is worth noting that there are people who are receiving social security payments while also working. Under employed people (those with jobs who want more hours/work) can also receive unemployment payments. It is not a binary proposition for many people.
And again, there are MORE people receiving unemployment payments now than before the pandemic.
Here is how the Australian newspaper reported it when the issue was noticed in September last year:
The commonwealth is spending $250m more on unemployment benefits each fortnight than before the pandemic, an increase of 60 per cent as the labour market snapback fails to shift hundreds of thousands of Australians off welfare payments.
Experts warned that the stubbornly high rate of welfare dependency in the wake of last year’s recession was evidence the labour market recovery had not been as strong as the official figures suggested.
At the end of August, there remained 1.08 million JobSeeker and Youth Allowance recipients, according to Department of Social Services figures. That was 552,000 fewer than the May 2020 peak, but still 273,000 more than before last year’s Covid recession, despite the number of unemployed falling by 129,000 over the same time period.
An analysis by The Australian shows there are now about 75 per cent more people on the dole than there are officially recognised as unemployed in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey. Over the two years leading into the pandemic, that figure averaged only 12 per cent — pointing to a labour market dislocation that is yet to resolve itself.
Luke Henriques-Gomes
Labor has not committed to an additional increase to the jobseeker payment and has dropped plans for a review into the rate, the shadow assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh says.
Asked by the Australian Council of Social Service chief executive Cassandra Goldie to clarify Labor’s position on the jobseeker payment at an event on Tuesday, Leigh said:
We haven’t committed to an additional increase. I’m aware that an increase took place. So it was a modest increase put in place. Certainly living on jobseeker is a challenge. And that’s one of the reasons we need to make sure we’re thinking about rent assistance and the adequacy of social housing. It’s that whole package … making sure we have appropriate supports around people who are most vulnerable.
Asked about the possibility of an independent review into the rate, which former leader Bill Shorten had promised in 2019 while hinting at an increase to the payment, Leigh said:
We don’t have a plan for an independent review at this stage. Certainly the focus that we have has been around our social housing commitment … which would see 30,000 additional social affordable homes put into the market there.
The watering down of Labor’s policy on jobseeker for this year’s election was criticised by Goldie, who noted there was “broad consensus across the community sector about the need to fix the adequacy of income support”.
The Morrison government temporarily doubled the jobseeker rate during the pandemic, before returning it to the base rate. In February last year, it increased this base rate by $50 a fortnight. The current rate is now $642.70 a fortnight, or about $46 a day, which is well below the poverty line.
Responding to the government’s increase at the time, Labor’s social services spokeswoman, Linda Burney, said Labor would “finalise all of our policies before the next election” and would look to address poverty at “every budget”.
The Coalition declined to appear at the Acoss event on Tuesday.
Acoss has called for an increase to jobseeker of $70 a day and a 50% increase of rental assistance.
The Greens said last week they wanted all welfare payments to be lifted to meet the most generous poverty line measure, the Henderson line, which stands at $88 a day. It estimated this would cost $88bn over the forward estimates.
I guess we all make mistakes, huh?
Victorian Liberal MP Katie Allen used the dentist analogy Scott Morrison trotted off and Murph picked up on in her morning wrap last week when she was asked about Morrison’s unpopularity problem.
So someone has created this line thinking it is the perfect comparison.
Personally, when at the dentist, I just wish it was included on Medicare, because it is prohibitively expensive for a lot of people and the wait list for those who are eligible for subsidised dental work can mean it can be years before issues are addressed.
The view from Katharine Murphy
Katharine Murphy
Election campaigns aren’t conversations. For the sake of all our sanities, I wish they were. But they aren’t. They are message wars.
They are message wars because the people who decide election outcomes in Australia aren’t watching closely. To land your point, you need to be short and sharp. You need to be short and sharp because at the end of six weeks, someone wins the message war and someone loses.
Anthony Albanese lost the message war of the first 24 hours on the hustings. The problem wasn’t that he fluffed the specific unemployment rate figure. As John Howard said yesterday: “Who cares.”
The problem for Labor politically was Albanese appeared not to know about a central, real world talking point in the economy.
Naturally, Scott Morrison is already weaponising that point against his opponent. This morning in Parramatta, Morrison said if you don’t understand the nuts and bolts then you don’t have an economic plan, because you are out of your depth. That’s the extrapolation that’s dangerous for Labor. That’s the extrapolation that puts a pep in Morrison’s step.
Looping back to my opening observation about the message war, Albanese this morning also let the questioning about yesterday’s mistake run and run.
Perhaps the sharper riposte might have been: Morrison makes plenty of mistakes, have you ever seen him apologise or take responsibility? When that happens, please come back to me and we’ll talk about this some more – all day if you like. Pack a lunch. We’ll really get into it.
As for Morrison, the prime minister was asked this morning about his own lack of popularity. Morrison invoked an analogy about a dentist. No one likes going to the dentist. But they want to go to the dentist that’s good at their job. This is a running riff on the devil you know, which is the core of the prime minister’s pitch.
There’s a substantive problem with this analogy, though. We’ve spoken to voters in marginal seats over the past few weeks. Voters negative about the prime minister are negative because they don’t think he’s good at his job. It’s a good line. But it’s like a donut. There’s a big hole in the middle.
Morrison on whether he’s the problem in that press conference. “It’s not a popularity test. You go to the dentist, it doesn’t matter if you like him or not. You want to know they’re good at their job”.
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) April 12, 2022
Rhetorically, this is a cut-through message. Substantively, though, there’s a problem. The voters we’ve spoken to in marginal seats are angry with Morrison because they don’t think he’s good at his job. That’s the issue. It’s a judgment on his record.#auspol
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) April 12, 2022
Gillon McLachlan announces he’s stepping down as AFL boss
He is not going until the end of the season – but Gil McLachlan says it is time for him to move on to other things.
He is a bit emotional.
I’m leaving now because it feels right – right for the AFL, right for me, right for my family.
Daniel Hurst
Returning to Scott Morrison’s presser briefly to close off the foreign affairs issues that were raised:
One of the questions he was asked was whether, if re-elected, he would pledge to “not allow” China to establish a military base in Solomon Islands.
Bear in mind that the Australian government’s stated policy vision for the Indo-Pacific, for years, has focused on promoting a region “of independent, sovereign and resilient states”. Read that as: every country, regardless of size, is able to make its own decisions free of coercion. So it can hardly dictate to countries in the region.
To date, Australian ministers have repeatedly acknowledged that Solomon Islands can make its own sovereign decisions but Australia has concerns about the prospective security agreement between it and China. A leaked draft from last month raised the possibility China could “make ship visits to carry out logistical replenishment in, and have stopover and transition in Solomon Islands”, while Chinese forces could also be used “to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in Solomon Islands”.
The prime minister of Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, has sought to allay concerns by saying his country has no intention of allowing a Chinese naval base. But Sogavare has also said it is “very insulting to be branded as unfit to manage our sovereign affairs”.
At today’s press conference, Morrison relied on those public assurances from Sogavare:
Well, you heard from the prime minister of the Solomon Islands that that is not something that they would allow to occur. He has made that very clear. And we’re continuing to press on the issue of rotation, possible rotation of vessels or others that might seek to go to Solomon Islands. That’s a serious issue that we’ll continue to press.
Morrison added that he respected the Solomon Islands was a sovereign country:
They’re not a state of Australia. They’re not under Australia’s control or direction. They are a sovereign country. And my approach to the Pacific, as the foreign minister will attest, has always been to respect the sovereignty of our neighbours.
There was a long time when Australia used to treat the Pacific as an extension of own our country. They didn’t like it. They didn’t like being treated like that and nor should they. And I have never treated my Pacific family like that. I have always been honest with them and up front with them and I’m in regular contact with them.
Morrison said that after the last election, the first place he travelled to was Solomon Islands, with his wife Jenny. Morrison also relied on Solomon Islands’ public statements that Australia and New Zealand remain its security partners of choice.
Pacific island countries have repeatedly urged the Australian government to take the region’s call for serious action on the climate crisis seriously.
The Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, was asked about the same issue. Albanese said Australia needed to “step up” not just rhetorically but in reality:
What I wouldn’t have done is sit back and do nothing.
Read more on this issue in last week’s analysis:
There are more questions on the gaffe from yesterday. He repeats the same answer. It was a mistake.
My thoughts from time to time, if you haven’t made a mistake in time to time and be distracted by other issues, we had dealt with as you know, you were there. We dealt with the young Frankie and I had the issue of children’s health, hearing and all those issues in my head.
I’m not making excuses for it. But it shouldn’t have happened. I get asked questions all the time. About the economy. And I got asked on the same day, about what the inflation rate was, what the wage rate was, I got asked a number of things and I got all of those questions right. (that was in the Sky interview)
Q: The Australian Human Rights Commission is at risk of being downgraded because of recent legal appointments. It is asking the commission rectify the appointments by providing more transparency process. Louise Finlay is commissioner will you keep her in that role and will you consider limiting political appointments in your body?
Albanese:
At the risk of creating a headline, I don’t know who Ms Finlay is. (she has been the human rights commissioner since November last year and is a former WA Liberal candidate)
…I will look at that. This government, what I do know is one of the reasons for the delay in the calling of the election was so that they could make dozens of appointments, day after day after day.
Is there any former Liberal MP or Liberal Mayor or counsellor who has not been appointed to the AAT commission or the fair work commission?
It is just an outrage. I think they can be good political appointments. And I will name one, Barry O’Farrell, was a good appointment stop he has a sincere interest in India, developed in his time as premier of New South Wales. I look forward to, if we are successful, working with him as India’s important country as a member of the quad. For Australia. It is a good appointment. I supported Mattias Cormann for the Secretary General of the OECD.
We spoke to people that we have connections with to support in Australia in that role.
That contrast with what our opponents have done historically.
…This government had just appointed mates to so many jobs that it has undermined the standing of organisations
Q: Scott Morrison yesterday voiced support for a ban on transgender people competing in female sports and said that the education curriculum risks being sold out to agenda. What is your position on these comments?
Anthony Albanese:
On the first. He seems to be unaware that it is already covered by the Sex Discrimination Act already.
The second one was … he needs to talk to the New South Wales education minister … the Liberal party appears worried about that.
This prime minister needs to do his day job. His day job is about things that he is responsible for, not look for ways to divide Australia. One of the things I want to do, because education is important and the basics of education are important. Teaching people the fullness of our history and teaching people to read and write, mathematics.
Q: You made economic management and cost of living key election issues. Considering yesterday’s mistake, as you say, that you couldn’t name economic figures, can you understand the criticism that you may have lost all credibility on these issues now? And back on to John Howard, do you agree it was not a big deal, yesterday’s incident?
Anthony Albanese:
I agree it was a mistake. And I owned up to it. It is up to others to judge those things. I will get on with things, but I agree that most people in public life have made errors when it comes to figures at various times, including the prime minister in recent times.
It will happen. It will not be the only time during this campaign that someone gets a figure wrong … just pay attention and you will see that. But the key is what policies we have going forward, whether it is having impact on cost of living.
Our plan for childcare will have an impact on cost of living. It is fully costed out though, we have released it. It is not the same policy that is in the platform, it is the policy that I have announced.
It is a policy where no family will be worse off, and most families will be better off … Every economist knows that every dollar in a childcare is at least $2 to the economy, because it boosts workforce participation and boosts participation.
We have looked at measures that make a permanent difference to cost of living, whether it is our power Australia plan that will reduce household power prices by $275.
Anthony Albanese then has to explain that Labor’s platform adopted at national conference is not the same as Labor’s policies that they are taking to the election.
The platform are aspirations Labor members would like to see Labor adopt as policies, but there is no onus to turn them into policies. The Liberal party does it too – branches send through their aspirations, state and federal conferences vote on it as part of the platform, and then it is up to the parliamentary party to decide whether or not they are adopted as policies.
Platforms are not binding for either major party.
That line of questioning continues.
Anthony Albanese:
The prime ministers said that the four plus three equals eight and then came up with a convoluted explanation as to why that was the case. When you make a mistake, with a number, and I was concentrating on something else, it shouldn’t have happened, I did – you own up to it and move on. There are no consequences for real people as a result for what I said.
This was not going missing … there was a mistake. I wish it hadn’t had occurred. I am usually very good with numbers.
And on another question on the same issue:
I can’t be trusted? This is a government that has $1 trillion of debt. As the government that today have employment projections, on appointment projections before the last election, they said that we would be debt free by 2030.
This is a government that had made 55, 55 projections on wages and on 52 of them they have been wrong – 52 out of 55 they have been wrong.
This is a government that don’t have a plan for the economy. Of course that is why from this government what you are seeing is two things. On the economy you are seeing support, one, that disappears as soon as people have passed the vote. And secondly you are seeing these personal attacks on Labor.
I found it quite extraordinary that on the day after the budget, a budget that was brought forward from May to March, so that they could outline the campaign for the next three years, they were talking about us. In the first speech on the Wednesday after the Tuesday night, they were talking about us. Josh Frydenberg went to the National Press Club address on that day and said that the budget was all about the election. He got that right.
What we need is a plan for the economy. Labor has a plan for the economy for cheaper energy, to power high-value manufacturing, to train Australians for those jobs through the free Tafe and other avenues.
‘Shake it off’: Albanese says he will own his mistakes
Q: Yesterday was a demoralising day for your campaign. See the newspaper treatment of it this morning. You can see that you have less chance of winning the election today rather than two days ago?
Anthony Albanese:
Yesterday I made a mistake and guess what? I fessed up to it, and you probably made a mistake from time to time, Andrew. There are other people that have made mistakes [about] numbers, even today. John Howard had, I think, pretty clear comment about what he thought about it.
My approach is, I fessed up, took responsibility, that is what I will do. From time to time, if ever I make a mistake, I will own it and I will accept responsibility.
But as I quoted the Ramones on day one of the campaign, here is a Taylor Swift comment for you. My theory is:
‘Shake it off.’
Albanese says people struggling amid ‘massive rise in insecure work’
Anthony Albanese focuses on the mental health announcement today, rather than making motherhood statements.
We get to the questions:
Q: Is Labor exaggerating the casualisation of the workforce? Analysis of data by the University of Melbourne says it is actually about 5% below the peak which is a 2003. Can you explain your comments on this change in the workforce? (This is what Scott Morrison was referencing in his press conference).
Albanese:
We’re not exaggerating the level of insecure work. It is a range of areas where this is happening. Casualisation one of them. Contracting out with led by companies.
Also the gig economy, which doesn’t classify people as employees – it classifies them as contractors rather than employees. What we are seeing around Australia is a massive rise in insecure work. There are more people having to work two, three, four jobs to get by.
I would say to the government who are dismissive of this that they need to get out more and talk to people on the ground about how they are really struggling.
Anthony Albanese holds press conference
The Labor leader Anthony Albanese is up now, talking about Labor’s commitment to restore Medicare for telehealth mental health appointments for those living in rural and regional areas.
It should never have been removed. It should have been a permanent level of support. Because we should regard people’s access to mental healthcare as no different from if someone breaks in arm – they expect to get treated by a doctor.
Psychiatric services, dealing with people’s mental health, whether they be young people, people in the workforce, older Australians, that is an epidemic.
We need to make sure that you have access to services wherever you live. Telehealth can be so important. That is why today’s announcement is critical.