The stats that prove Ken Hinkley is KIDDING HIMSELF when he says Port can make the finals in 2022

Is Port Adelaide in 2022 the worst side we have ever seen in the VFL/AFL? Not quite, but a 0-4 start and dishing up a goalless first half against Melbourne on Friday has put them on a hiding to nothing when it comes to salvaging their season. 

Since the top eight system was first introduced in the AFL only one of 33 teams has recovered to make the finals after starting that poorly. 

Statistically, Port Adelaide now only has a three per cent chance of playing finals in 2022. 

Only one side started with a 0-4 record in 2021: North Melbourne, who collected the wooden spoon.

There are examples of teams starting 0-4 and surging home to play finals, but only one side has done so since 1975. Sydney started the season with six losses and not only made the finals in 2017, but went on to reach the second round of the finals from sixth place on the ladder. 

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Port Adelaide players trudge off the field after their loss to Melbourne on Thursday. It was the club's fourth loss to open the 2022 season with.

Port Adelaide players trudge off the field after their loss to Melbourne on Thursday. It was the club’s fourth loss to open the 2022 season with.

GWS also managed to reach an elimination final in 2021 after a 0-3 start. However, they are exceptions and there are many more horror tales, like Richmond in 2007 and Fremantle in 2001 who would go on to get the wooden spoon. 

Instead of letting those stats defeat him, Port coach Ken Hinkley is trying to spin them into a way to motivate his side. 

‘It means two can [bounce back from 0-4 starts],’ Hinkley said.

‘Absolutely [we‘re optimistic]. Why not? We haven’t had everything the way we want, it’s a long season. I get that people are going to question my belief, but I’m strong in it. I think we can absolutely move forward and improve quickly.’

Port coach Ken Hinkley believes if Sydney can recover from an 0-4 start to play AFL finals, his side can as well

Port coach Ken Hinkley believes if Sydney can recover from an 0-4 start to play AFL finals, his side can as well

Port Adelaide’s score against Melbourne was dismal, but it was far from the lowest in VFL/AFL history. 

St Kilda in famously only scored a single behind in 1899 and also had scores of two behinds in 1897 and twice in 1899.

The lowest score in the modern AFL era was when Fremantle could only muster 1.7 (13) in their loss to the Adelaide Crows in 2009.

Fitzroy scored 0.0 in the first half on their way to a 112-point thrashing at the hands of Essendon in 1995. 

The Lions would go on to win only two games in that entire season and finished with the wooden spoon by a wide margin. 

If Port Adelaide are looking for some hope, there have been 10 instances in VFL/AFL history where a side has been scoreless in the first half but still gone on to win the game. 

West Coast was the most recent team to achieve the feat after beating Hawthorn 5.21 (51) to 5.16 (46) in 2012.     

Hinkley’s defiance might hold some water, but only if Port Adelaide can arrest their leaky defence. 

According to AFL statistics for this season the Power are not having any problem scoring points, averaging 9.6 goals (third in the league) and 9.7 behinds (second in the league) per match.

Stats show that Port also have no problem moving the ball, sitting fourth in the league in kicks and disposals and fifth in handballs. However, finding their target has been an issue with the club sitting 12th in the competition in marks while the Power are ranked equal eighth for inside 50s.

Port Adelaide stole defeat from the jaws of victory in their cross-town derby against the Adelaide Crows in round three

Port Adelaide stole defeat from the jaws of victory in their cross-town derby against the Adelaide Crows in round three 

Fantasy Football stats also show that the players are doing their job individually, with the club sitting second on the list of all clubs when it comes to AFL Fantasy points scored collectively by players. 

As a team unit, however, Port has not been getting the job done. 

‘I think there‘s some obvious reasons, unfortunately,” Hinkley said of his team’s poor start.

‘There are some personnel reasons and there are some challenges around what we‘re trying to achieve. The challenges are real. But we’ve got some people trying to step up.

‘I think it was our fifth or sixth debutant for the club tonight already. We can‘t quite get the continuity of people back, which then can flow into confidence of other players. It’s too simplistic to just put it down to one or two things.

‘We’re working towards making us better quickly and hanging in there. At the moment we’re hanging in there in a position we would much rather not be in.’

source: dailymail.co.uk


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