Here’s a recap of the situation in Northern Ireland, where PA Media have been reporting overnight that they have seen a paper from the Department of Health which has informed Executive ministers that positive cases have risen by 23% in a week.
The paper says hospital admissions have risen by 19% in the last week, while occupancy is up 10%. The conversion rate of cases to hospital admissions has risen above 2% for the first time since early September, and is now estimated at around 2.8%.
The paper says an increase in admissions is inevitable in the coming week and will continue to rise beyond that if cases numbers are not reduced. Officials warn that community transmission is at a “high level and increasing rapidly”.
The Health Department experts state that without further intervention “as soon as possible”, modelling suggests hospital capacity may be exceeded in mid-December, if the current trajectory follows a central pathway.
The paper states: “Evidence suggests that adherence to guidelines by the public is declining and that there has been very low uptake of Covid certification on a voluntary basis by the hospitality sector.”
It states the need for immediate measures to increase adherence to current mitigations – such as face mask use and work-from-home guidance.
It says those mitigations will be unlikely to bring the reproduction rate below one unless they are accompanied by “widespread use of Covid certification across higher risk settings”.
Robin Swann, Northern Ireland’s health minister, has previously proposed that mandatory Covid-19 passports become enforceable from 13 December. PA says it understands that Swann is proposing that passports are used to gain entry to nightclubs, hospitality premises that serve food and or drink, cinemas, theatres and conferences halls. The passport issue has sharply divided the five-party coalition in Belfast.
PA report that the paper warns that without a significant decline in community transmission in the next three weeks “there is a risk that more severe restrictions will need to be considered from mid-December to avoid hospital capacity from being overwhelmed”.