Here we go again. In amassing 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has caught the Biden administration and its European allies flatfooted.
He first surprised the world in August 2008, when a newly revived Russian military rapidly crushed the Georgian military.
Next, Putin launched a stealth operation in March 2014 to annex Crimea and underwrote a violent separatist movement in the industrial Donbas region that continues to this day.
Now, Kremlin official Dmitry Kozak is warning that the outbreak of a major war in eastern Ukraine would signal “the beginning of the end” for Kiev.
Holy moly! Is Putin really trying
to take over all of Ukraine? Is Europe next? Or is he simply engaging in saber-rattling?
On Monday, European Union foreign- policy head Josep Borrell said it would take only “a spark” to ignite a conflagration in Ukraine. But there isn’t much America and NATO can do beyond pressuring Putin as they’ve always done — by issuing empty threats. Economic sanctions haven’t deterred Putin before and they won’t deter him now. Biden had ordered two warships to sail to the Black Sea, but recalled them last Tuesday after Russia warned that they should “stay away for their own good.” Score one for Putin.
Meanwhile, Russia is moving 15 warships from the Caspian to the Black Sea. Score another one for Putin.
The likelihood that Putin will actually try to conquer Ukraine, however, seems slim. For one thing, Putin, in contrast to his previous incursions, has ensured that Russian troop movements are highly visible. He could overrun the Donbas, not to mention western Ukraine. But trying to pacify cities along Ukraine’s Black Sea as well as capture a vital water canal north of Crimea would result in high casualties. In addition, the Donbas is a money pit, a defunct industrial area where the majority of those remaining behind are pensioners. Colin Powell’s famous Pottery Barn warning to George W. Bush on the eve of the Iraq War applies: “You break it, you own it.”
Truth be told, Putin doesn’t need to go to war. His latest moves are already paying off. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pleading for a four-power summit with Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to restore a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. What’s more, on Tuesday Biden agreed to a summit with Putin, a move that official Moscow is saluting as a victory. After smarting at Biden calling him a “killer,” Putin is demonstrating that he has a killer instinct, at least when it comes to foreign affairs.
Putin is reminding the West that he may be despised but he can’t be ignored. Indeed, the most likely prospect is that Putin will continue to raise and lower tensions in Ukraine at will. After the Cold War ended, America and its allies thought they would create democracies from sea to shining sea in Eastern Europe.
They were wrong. When it comes to who is the Decider about Ukraine’s fate, it isn’t Biden or NATO. It’s Putin.