Among other things, the fall will be linked to a) stockpiling in late 2020, allowing businesses to avoid the need to trade in early January, and b) some ripple effects from the Covid-related closure of the ports back in December.
Still, there can be little doubt that some of this damage is down to disruption. Some things have probably improved in the weeks since, given that, for example, major haulage firms have largely resumed deliveries between the UK and the continent (some had paused given the high percentage of wrongly filled-in paperwork).
But there are also signs that firms are still struggling. Recent ONS business surveys show that there is still a small chunk of manufacturers who haven’t been able to export recently, while many are reporting fewer shipments than usual.
Unsurprisingly input prices have also been rising more than normal, though some of this will be down to international shipping issues. What’s also telling is that a small – but clearly rising – number of firms in affected sectors are saying they are making changes to their supply chains.