The dust seems to be settling on Sunday’s ambitious attempt to relieve the bookmaking industry of between £2m and £3m, which went astray when Gallahers Cross, the 4-5 favourite, could finish only fourth in the final leg of a long-odds treble. But one aspect of the attempted coup which does deserve further scrutiny, not least with the biggest week of the betting year little more than a month away, is what it says about the legitimacy of the current “industry” system for returning starting prices while racing continues behind closed doors.
We will never know for sure how much was paid out on Sunday’s three horses, or how much was riding on the final leg. But one thing that can be said for certain is that every punter who placed an SP bet on either the 2.35 at Southwell – won by the 4-6 favourite, Blowing Dixie – or Gallahers Cross’s race a couple of hours later was being fairly cynically ripped off by the system.
There were seven races at Southwell on Sunday, and the industry system produced SPs on the other six with over-rounds that ranged from 106% to 120%, while the margin per runner ranged from 1.5% to 2.28%. In Blowing Dixie’s race, however, the SPs added up to 132%, or 4% per runner.
It was much the same at Musselburgh, where a margin-per-runner of around 2% – and as low as 1.63% – on the first six races was followed by a return of 3% per runner in Gallahers Cross’s race at the end of the card.
Bookies shovelling money into the market to reduce liabilities is, of course, nothing new, but Sunday’s attempted coup was not a freak event like Frankie Dettori’s seven winners at Ascot in the 90s, or his four-timer at the Royal meeting in 2019 which threatened a similar catastrophe for the bookies.
The liabilities on Sunday’s doubles and trebles were locked in as soon as the plotters’ bets were accepted by the layers’ software on Saturday evening. The effect of the industry SPs which emerged the following day was to ensure that any punters following them in as the story developed during the day were getting a miserable price, while also shaving the win and each-way returns on the 7-1, 10-1 and 22-1 shots that filled the frame ahead of Gallahers Cross.
The loss for most individual punters – the ones that backed Blowing Dixie, or had a win on the last at Musselburgh – will have been counted in a few pounds or pennies. Multiplied across the industry, however, it soon adds up, and the important point going forward is that the industry SP system will be with us for some time to come.
Quick Guide
Greg Wood’s tips for Tuesday
Kempton Park
12.45 Nina The Terrier
1.15 Diva’s Mix
1.45 Kentucky Hardboot
2.15 Flic Ou Voyou
2.50 Rose Of Aghaboe
3.20 Mengli Khan
3.50 Adjali
4.20 Didtheyleaveuoutto
Southwell
4.45 Mukha Magic
5.15 Love Your Work
5.45 Craved
6.15 Rafiot (nap)
6.45 Slowmo
7.15 Andalaska Bear (nb)
7.45 The Retriever
It will certainly be in place at Cheltenham next month, when a series of short-priced favourites on the opening two days in particular will attract a huge number of multiples. Betting shops – where SPs are still highly significant – are unlikely to be open but many online bets, or legs of those bets, will still be settled at the SP. It is also important for online punters whose accounts get the “best odds” guarantee.
Punters have placed their trust in SPs, with prices returned from the on-course market, for well over a century, but the coronavirus pandemic has given the big off-course firms a chance to exert some control on the system. It is a grip on the odds that they must not be allowed to retain when crowds, and bookies, eventually return to our tracks.
As for today’s action, Taunton’s card was called off this morning to leave Southwell’s Fibresand meeting this evening as the main attraction. Rafiot (6.15) made an impressive debut on the surface last time out and should follow up at around 2-1, while the 9-2 shot Andalaska Bear (7.15) also showed enough over six furlongs at Southwell last time to suggest that the step up to seven today will suit.