The many challenges that still lie ahead for racing as it recovers from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic were placed in sharp relief on Wednesday when Ascot, Britain’s most popular course by attendance, said it anticipates a “significant pre-tax loss in 2021” and that its showpiece Royal meeting next June will take place with social distancing measures still in force.
The five days of Royal Ascot in 2019 attracted nearly 300,000 racegoers, out of an annual total of around 550,000 spectators for the track’s 25 afternoons of racing (a figure that excludes Champions Day in October, which is run under an “industry” banner).
About 70% of Ascot’s annual turnover – which amounted to £96.7m in 2019 – derives from spectators via ticket sales, hospitality and betting, while 70% of that total – about £45m – is generated by the Royal meeting alone.
“We believe that even in June, there will be social distancing rules, so we’re more likely to be full in accordance with those rules than full in accordance with normal,” Guy Henderson, Ascot’s chief executive, said on Wednesday.
“There’s too much uncertainty to speculate [about a possible maximum attendance] but we’re also confident that by June, the social distancing rules should be much improved on what they are today in the middle of December.
“The challenge for us in the first quarter of next year will be to be nimble, to prepare and build leading up to our premier meeting so that if things open up more quickly than we anticipate, we’ll be able to handle it. But on any view, we see 2021 as a rebuild year, towards strutting our full stuff in 2022.”
Henderson’s worst-case forecast for 2021 would be “a close-run race between being behind closed doors all year and having 2,000 people all year, which is what it is at the moment”.
He can at least reflect, however, that Ascot’s current situation would be much worse – a £20m loss in 2020, in fact – without a combination of government assistance and what now looks like a very shrewd decision to take out pandemic insurance.
“We have communicable disease insurance,” Henderson said, “because since foot & mouth [in 2001] and equine flu [in early 2019], it’s reasonably foreseeable that disease can get in the way of racing, and so we built that into our financial model.
“You renew for fixed periods and it just so happens that this was the last year of our current arrangement. We start again [in 2021] but at least that helped us in 2020, as did the loyal support of our sponsors and the owners who ran their horses here.”
Quick Guide
Greg Wood’s Thursday tips
Hereford
12.25 Keep Rolling
12.55 Undersupervision
1.25 Fado Des Brosses
1.55 Eclair Surf
2.30 Song Of The Hunter
3.05 Sexy Lot
3.40 Miss Gold Den
Exeter
12.35 Gazette Bourgeoise
1.05 Dock Road
1.35 Vienna Court
2.05 Brinkley
2.40 Cobolobo
3.15 Bogoss Du Perret
3.50 Flou Artsistique
Southwell
2.15 Slowmo
2.50 Passional
3.25 Accrington Stanley
4.00 Fortultous
4.35 Hermocrates (nb)
5.10 Badger Berry
5.45 Spring Romance
Chelmsford
4.20 The Attorney
4.55 Puy Mary
5.30 Durabella
6.00 Kondo Isami
6.30 The Trader
7.00 Kingswear (nap)
7.30 Juan Les Pins
8.00 Dawaaleeb
8.30 Azets
Henderson can also imagine a time when proof of having been vaccinated against Covid-19 could be a requirement for entry to Ascot. “There is a group called the Sport Technology Information Group working under the government,” he said, “and I can foresee that for large venues for sport, we might end up with a digital passport of some kind.
“I think it’s the view of government that technology can be very helpful in crowds coming back together. It could also help people to arrive and get on-site as quickly as possible, as how they arrive and leave is just as important as what happens on-site.”