Could we see a $600 stimulus check in 2020? Here’s what we know now

Congress is still trying to pass another economic relief package before the end of the year. But a second stimulus check of potentially up to $1,200 per eligible American may not be part of the legislation until early 2021, after President-elect Joe Biden takes office. 

The White House is pushing for Senate Republicans to include a $600 payment for adults and children with a new bipartisan proposal, The Washington Post reported Tuesday. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have rejected the pitch, since the trade-off for a check under the White House plan would be less unemployment aid. 

The $908 billion bipartisan proposal currently on the table is viewed as a last-ditch effort to fund sorely needed economic aid like extra unemployment benefits and money for small businesses before protections expire at the end of the year. Should no legislation pass before Dec. 31, tens of millions of Americans will be left without any federal support for weeks, while hunger and evictions mount and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths soar.

Ultimately, Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell both need to sign off on a bill. Pelosi endorsed the deal again on Thursday, though it is significantly smaller than the $2.2 trillion Heroes Act the House passed in October, and does not include a second stimulus check. “I think the values and the priorities that they have established are what we need to do right away,” Pelosi said during her weekly press conference. “We cannot leave here without having a piece of legislation.”

McConnell at first dismissed the $908 billion plan in favor of his $500 billion “skinny” bill, but on Monday told the Senate floor that “a targeted compromise on the most urgent items could pass by a massive bipartisan margin.”

The final bill has not yet been released. In terms of when Congress would vote on it once it’s ready, Pelosi said during her Thursday press conference that she is respectful of the fact that unemployment benefits expire on Dec. 26, and expects to vote sometime before then. On Wednesday, the House passed a stopgap bill to keep the government open until Dec. 18 and continue to work on the 2021 budget. 

“This is a smaller package. This is not a stimulus package. This is emergency supplemental to deal with what we have,” Pelosi said during the press conference. “We have to have a bill and we can’t go home without it.” She also expressed support for linking the relief bill to the wider 2021 budget bill, and support for extending the eviction moratorium. 

However, other members of Congress who support a second stimulus check for eligible Americans are not happy that the $908 billion bill doesn’t include funding for those direct payments. Some, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, a former Democratic presidential candidate, have said they will not support the bill without the addition of stimulus checks. Some also object to language that would protect businesses and certain institutions from coronavirus-related lawsuits, a priority backed by Republicans.

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, also said he’d oppose a package that doesn’t contain a stimulus check, and that he has lobbied the president to veto any bill that does not include a second round of direct payments. 

“Working families and individuals ought to be first for COVID relief, and then we’ll talk about everything else. I see some of these comments about, ‘Well, we just don’t have any money left over,'” Hawley told Politico on Monday. “We don’t have money left over for people? We can give it to state governments, to businesses, but we don’t have any money for people? I just think that’s crazy.”

On Tuesday, following continued calls for a second check, The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration is asking Senate Republicans to include a $600 check in talks on the bipartisan bill. The Post reported Trump would be willing to go up to $2,000 for another payment. The first round of checks topped out at $1,200 per individual.

Biden has called the $908 billion proposal a “down payment” on a larger, future stimulus package, stressing that the “immediately needed” relief for unemployed Americans, people facing eviction and people struggling to pay a mortgage has already been addressed in the Democrats’ $3 trillion Heroes Act passed May 15, which the House of Representatives revised down to $2.2 trillion on Oct. 1.

For now, Biden, Pelosi and other top Democrats support the end-of-year deal, albeit with some “improvements.” It’s unlikely that Pelosi and Biden will force the issue of a stimulus check, which could add over $270 billion to the final package — an increase of roughly 30% of the $908 billion bipartisan proposal.

We also still don’t know if McConnell and other top Republicans will support the final version of the bill. 

“Everyone feels a sense of urgency. There is not a person on the Hill, I think, who doesn’t feel the urgency,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat representing New Jersey who has been involved in the bipartisan group’s work, told The Washington Post Monday. “I think everybody recognizes the clock is ticking and it’s getting louder. I think that’s forcing resolution, and the good news is we’ve made a lot of progress.”

Here’s what we know about where negotiations stand right now and what could happen before the end of the year.

Read more: What Biden could do for stimulus if another bill doesn’t pass

When could a new stimulus bill be passed?

Here are some possible scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks and months, depending on which way the wind blows in Washington.

When could a stimulus bill or package pass?

House votes	Senate votes	President signs
Dec 16	Dec 17	Dec 18
Feb 1, 2021 (after inauguration)	Feb 2	Feb 3
Feb 16 (Feb 15 is President’s Day)	Feb 16	Feb 16
March 15	March 16	March 17

What are all the stimulus bill options?

If a stimulus bill is completed before Jan. 20: An agreement is made, and the current House and Senate vote before the new Congress is seated in January. If Trump signs the rescue bill into law, aid would likely begin to go out within weeks, with certain groups receiving financial help before the end of 2020.

If negotiators agree on a stimulus deal, but it fails in either the House or Senate: In this situation, Democrats and Republicans could advance their own proposals that might pass in their majority chambers but fail (or fail to be considered) by the other. In this case, Congress might try again after Biden is sworn in as president.

A smaller bill could pass now, and a larger one could happen later: It’s possible that a subset of programs would get funded before Biden becomes president, for example, unemployment aid or an extension of the eviction ban, with the new Congress revisiting other programs, like a second stimulus check, after his inauguration. As sitting president, Trump would need to sign any bill passed before Jan. 20 into law for it to take effect.

If talks once again fall apart until after Jan. 20: If partisan differences keep a bill from passing, it’s likely they’ll restart in some capacity after the inauguration in January. Here are some executive actions Biden could take immediately once president if a stimulus bill hasn’t passed by the time he’s sworn in.

If a bill does pass that includes a direct payment, here’s how quickly we think the IRS could send a second stimulus check.

This is why the Democrats’ stimulus proposal is still important

On Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that included a second stimulus check and additional benefits such as enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans. The House bill, endorsed primarily by Democrats, was not expected to advance through the Republican-controlled Senate, and indeed did not.

Although it is not law, this bill provides the foundation from which Pelosi was working prior to the biparrtisan proposal and might work from in the future, if another stimulus bill picks up steam after Biden’s inauguration in 2021. This revised Heroes Act has Biden’s support and could figure into future negotiations, depending on whether Georgia’s state runoff on Jan. 5 gives Democrats control of the Senate (Republicans currently maintain a two-seat lead).

So what do Republicans and Democrats agree on?

Proposals from both sides have included the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses, enhanced unemployment insurance, and another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements. Although not every commonality would make it into a smaller bill, if that were to pass first, these measures are most likely to gain bipartisan support. The two sides also agree on more financial assistance for coronavirus testing and vaccine deployment.

Here are more details on the biggest points of contention between the White House, Republicans and Democrats.

For more information about stimulus checks, here’s how soon you might get your second stimulus check now, what you should do to speed up the delivery of a potential second check, and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.