It’s true, your second stimulus check may be smaller, if…

This week’s two new frontrunner stimulus bill proposals conspicuously omitted a second direct payment that has been expected to be worth up to $1,200 per person. But it’s still very much possible that the popular second stimulus check will be up for negotiation in early 2021. (Here’s when it could possibly arrive.) 

President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have all backed a $908 billion plan for this year, with the intention to pass a broader stimulus bill later on. When and if that happens, there are some truths you should prepare for in regards to a second check, including that it could be smaller than your first payment, or more slight than you had hoped it would be (and millions of people likely won’t be eligible at all).

Here’s how the stimulus qualifications could shift to produce a smaller payment for you, using clues and facts to predict how much stimulus money your household would be due. And here are the five different payment groups you’d belong to. This story updates frequently.

First, one key fact to know about your next stimulus check

In the first round of stimulus checks, the IRS for the most part used your most recent federal tax return (2019 0r 2018) when calculating your total payment (people who don’t ordinarily file tax returns were in many cases eligible as well). But some people who qualified for a check have experienced personal or financial changes after filing that could affect a future payment one way or another. 

Do you have a new job? Or did you earn more overall?

Your adjusted gross income, or AGI, is a term normally used for the IRS’ yearly tax return to describe your total income, including assets (like stock sales, credits and deductions or an inheritance, for example) that fall outside your usual paycheck. The first stimulus check, and most likely the second, will cut you off if your AGI goes above a certain income limit.

There’s a huge correlation between your tax status and stimulus checks, and any change in your AGI could increase or reduce the size of your check.

For instance, if you received the full $1,200 per qualified adult with the first stimulus check because your AGI was under the income limit, but then you got a promotion or a new job that pays more (congratulations), then your check may be smaller next time — since the IRS pays out on a sliding scale — or you may have maxed out the threshold and no longer qualify. All told, this is a “good” problem to have.

Do you have fewer child dependents now than you did earlier this year?

Age is an important factor in how much stimulus money a household gets, but maybe not like you think. Older adults are in many cases entitled to a stimulus check. In the first round of direct payments, households were given an extra $500 for each “child dependent.” This is a legal minor who is 16 years old or younger. 

Interestingly, the IRS’ definition of a child dependent for your taxes (23 or under, and financially reliant on the tax filer) isn’t the same set of terms used for stimulus checks. 

If the rules stay the same (and there’s some indication they may not), any older dependents you claimed for the first check may have aged out of eligibility, which means you could get $500 less if rules stay the same.

Did you change how your dependent is claimed, or do you owe back child support?

For the most part, any stimulus check you receive you have full rights to use as you like. However, one exception laid out in the CARES Act from March was child support. If you owe child support to your kid’s other parent, you may have some or all of your stimulus check garnished. If you received an extra $500 for the way you and the other parent filed a dependency claim (it’s complicated), and then changed how you filed in your 2019 tax reserve (for example, if the other parent gained full custody), you may not get the extra $500. Here’s more information about child support situations.

Do you owe any debt to private banks or creditors?

Normally, your stimulus money can’t be garnished to pay rent or federal tax. There are a few exceptions, however, including the child support situation above. If these rules don’t change with the next stimulus bill, then there are two groups — private creditors and banks — who could legitimately seize all or part of your money from the first, and likely the second, check.

If some stimulus rules change, you could be disqualified

Since the terms of the second stimulus check aren’t finalized yet — and won’t be until the sitting president signs a bill into law — it isn’t clear how they may or may not change. There’s also the way that the IRS may interpret the law and act or withhold stimulus money. For example, after the CARES Act was signed in March, the IRS first sent people in prison and jail a stimulus check, then asked for it back and stopped issuing new checks. A recent ruling from a federal judge has started them up again. 

If this law, and others regarding citizenship status in the US, US territories or abroad, were to change, it could make someone who was eligible to receive the first payment disqualified for a second check. 

If you moved, did you update the IRS with your new address?

If you moved as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and haven’t filed a change of address form with the USPS or IRS (a good measure to take), the agency may not know where to send a paper check or EIP card. If you received your first stimulus delivery through direct deposit, the IRS will likely go that route again. If you changed bank accounts, you may run into a holdup or need to contact the IRS to file a further claim.

You will probably have to file a claim if there’s any IRS errors or missing steps

It happened with the first check and could easily happen with the next. Clerical errors and complex rules might result in your household getting less money in a future second stimulus check than you might really be entitled to — for you and your dependents. Or maybe you don’t normally need to file taxes and wind up missing a rare extra step you need to take. Perhaps you moved (see above). 

Whatever the reason, if some issue prevents you from receiving all or part of your stimulus money, you should be able to claim a rebate payment. The IRS is currently sorting through these stimulus payment omissions now for a wide range of groups, and will likely do so again if a second check comes to be.

Has anyone in your family passed away since you last filed taxes?

Our condolences. If your household received a stimulus check that included a spouse or child dependent who died between your last tax filing and the receipt of the second stimulus check, the IRS is likely to send a smaller sum if your tax filing status, deductions, credits or AGI changed. If the person is recently deceased (by the time the next check arrives), the IRS asks for the payment to be returned.

For more on stimulus, here’s what President-elect Joe Biden could do if another stimulus bill doesn’t go through by the time he becomes president, and everything you need to know about stimulus checks.