13:55
It is that time of year where tennis journalists and fans stumble over basic maths.
- If Nadal defeats Thiem in 2 sets or if Nadal defeats Thiem and Rublev defeats Tsitsipas, Nadal will advance to the semi-final
- If Thiem defeats Nadal and Tsitsipas defeats Rublev, Thiem will advance to the semi-final
12:16
If you have a spare 37 minutes, here is their encounter in Melbourne this year. It feels like a decade ago.
12:14
Preamble
Hello! Welcome to our coverage on day 3 of the ATP Finals at the O2 Arena, where we have the biggest match of the event so far as French Open champion and No 2 Rafael Nadal takes on US Open champion and No 3 Dominic Thiem.
This match has major implications for both the group stages and beyond. After Thiem’s tight three-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nadal’s easy first match against Andrey Rublev, they are fighting for supremacy in this group. Nadal will also retain his No 2 ranking if he wins today, making it likelier that he will clinch the 2nd seed at the Australian Open. Despite what they may say, neither player wants to face Novak Djokovic in the semi-final.
Although Nadal leads the head-to-head 9-5, Thiem has made so much progress against the big three in recent years and his success is reflected in a 3-3 H2H over their last 6 matches. They have only ever played twice on hard courts, with Nadal edging out their classic 2018 US Open quarter-final 7-6(5) in the 5th set before Thiem won a tight Australian Open quarter-final in four sets this year.
Both played at a high level in their opening matches, and this match will give an accurate reflection of exactly where they are as they both look for their first ATP Finals title.