As what’s left of Bavi, once a formidable typhoon, unravels over eastern China and Russia, AccuWeather forecasters will shift their attention to the Philippine Sea and East China Sea for another tropical development threat into next week.
An area of low pressure that is currently meandering over the Philippine Sea organized and strengthened Friday, becoming a tropical depression and then eventually Tropical Storm Maysak. This tropical feature is also referred to as Julian in the Philippines.
Some waves of rain are expected to dissipate across Luzon in the Philippines as Maysak moves northward into the weekend.
However, this trajectory will bring Maysak nearer to the southern Ryuku islands by Sunday.
The infrared satellite image above shows Tropical Storm Maysak churning and strengthening east of the Philippines late on Friday, August 28. (Photo/RAMMB)
This same zone is an environment favorable for further tropical strengthening, as it contains both warm waters and low wind shear.
Wind shear is the change of speed and direction of wind at different levels in the atmosphere, and it plays an important role in the development and longevity of tropical systems.
AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls expects slow but steady strengthening to continue, with Maysak likely to become a typhoon by early next week as it reaches the Ryukyu Islands.
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A tropical cyclone in the West Pacific is designated as a typhoon once sustained winds reach 104 km/h (64 mph). This is equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific ocean basins.
The Ryukyu Islands can first expect increasingly rough seas and wet weather, but the current track has the islands of Okinawa to Amami Oshima near or just to the east of the center of the storm while it’s strengthening.
These areas could be slammed with wind gusts of over 120 km/h (75 mph), coastal flooding and heavy downpours Monday and Tuesday.
By midweek, Maysak is forecast to move northward through the East China Sea, missing China for the most part but slamming western Japan and the Korean Peninsula again.
The most likely target for the brunt of Maysak’s impacts will be near landfall, which is currently forecast for southern South Korea on Wednesday.
Should Maysak make landfall in South Korea, it would be the fourth named tropical system to do so thus far in 2020, a feat that would tie the record number of landfalls in the country in one year.
Maysak is expected to bring with it damaging winds up to 175 km/h (110 mph) as well as heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding and mudslides in the already saturated area.
While Maysak is forecast to be influenced by a front in Russia after Wednesday and will likely lead to a loss of wind intensity for the system as it moves northward, rain and strong winds are likely to extend into North Korea, far northeastern China and far southern Russia.
A bicyclist stops to view fallen trees from a typhoon on a main road in Pyongyang, North Korea, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2020. A typhoon damaged homes and other buildings, flooded roads and toppled utility poles on the Korean Peninsula before weakening to a tropical storm. (AP Photo/Cha Song Ho)
Many of these areas were hit hard by heavy rain and damaging winds from Bavi this week. The most recent tropical system in the West Pacific basin strengthened into a typhoon on Monday and peaked in strength on Wednesday with winds equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
Reports of downed trees and power lines, damage to buildings, flooded roadways, travel delays and power outages were common across the Korean Peninsula as the storm moved through on Thursday.
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