Young adults are more likely to be COVID-19 superspreaders, new research shows — probably because they aren't staying home

One man’s wild weekend in Seoul, South Korea. A birthday party in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. A trip to a winery in Ohio. In all three instances, a young adult spread the coronavirus to at least a dozen people. The 29-year-old man in Seoul infected more than 100 others.

In the last few months, high-risk activities like these among young adults have been increasingly linked to superspreading events. It’s part of larger pattern of young people fueling transmission, according to a recent study from researchers at Emory University and the Georgia Department of Public Health.

After analyzing coronavirus cases across five Georgia counties from March to May, the researchers found that people under age 60 tended to be the main drivers of superspreading events. People in that age group were nearly three times more likely to infect others compared to people ages 60 and older, according to the researchers.

Last week, the World Health Organization also warned that young people seem to be transmitting the virus to the elderly or immunocompromised.

“People in their 20s, 30s, and 40s are increasingly driving the spread,” Takeshi Kasai, the WHO’s Western Pacific regional director, said during a briefing. “Many are unaware they are infected. This increases the risk of spillovers to the more vulnerable.”

Coronavirus cases are skewing younger

One reason older people and those with preexisting health conditions seem less likely to infect others is that they have fewer social interactions. Young adults, on the other hand, are more likely to go out or see friends, particularly if they assume the threat to their health is milder.

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“It would make sense that people under 60 are more likely to be superspreaders,” Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health, told Business Insider. “They would have more opportunity to be superspreaders.”

Many states with large outbreaks have seen a considerable rise in coronavirus cases among younger residents. Florida’s median age of coronavirus patients, for instance, declined from 65 in March to 40 in mid-July.

In California, people ages 18 to 34 went from representing 24% of the state’s coronavirus cases in May to 35% in August. The share of cases among people 65 and older, by contrast, declined from 22% to 11% during that time. In Los Angeles County specifically, infection rates among people ages 18 to 29 quadrupled from June to late July. 

“If you look at what’s going on with the new infections, the median age is about a decade and a half younger than it was a few months ago,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg last month. 

“My message to young people is consider your responsibility to yourself, but also the societal responsibility,” Fauci added. “By allowing yourself to get infected, you are propagating the pandemic.”

College attendance could lead to more superspreading events 

The Emory University study found that superspreading played a “particularly important role” in driving rural outbreaks in Georgia: Around 2% of cases across all five counties studied were responsible for 20% of infections. 

That aligns with other research about the disproportionate role superspreader events play in coronavirus transmission. A May study from The University of Hong Kong, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, found that around 80% of transmission in Hong Kong from January to April came from just 20% of cases, suggesting superspreading was the primary means of transmission. The largest cluster of cases during that time was linked to bars.

Fauci has warned about bars being major transmission centers in the US as well.

“You want to stay away from places like bars where people congregate,” he said during a JAMA interview on August 3.

But that’s difficult to enforce as some colleges resume in-person classes. In total, more than 17,000 coronavirus cases have been tied to US colleges and universities so far, according to data from The New York Times.

In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, more than 100 people tested positive for the coronavirus in June after visiting bars near the Louisiana State University campus. Then in July, more than 120 cases were linked to fraternities and sororities at the University of Washington. About a week ago, photos began circulating of University of Alabama students crowded outside bars in Tuscaloosa.

Many US colleges have rolled back their in-person reopening plans, and those that are holding in-person classes are preparing for the possibility that they’ll need to shut down.

In an email to students in July, Laurie Santos, the head of one of Yale’s residential colleges, warned students that their residential college life could “look more like a hospital unit” this fall. Most of Yale’s undergraduate courses are being taught remotely, but freshmen, juniors, and seniors are permitted to live on campus this fall. A few classes will still be held in person, but all students are being asked to practice social distancing and wear masks.

In her letter, Santos said students “should be emotionally prepared for widespread infections — and possibly deaths.”

Read the original article on Business Insider