The British Horseracing Authority expects to publish its “recovery plan” for the sport following the coronavirus pandemic later today, including the “nine goals” for the long-term health of racing which were promised by Nick Rust, its chief executive, in an interview with ITV Racing on Saturday.
A big push on syndicates to shore up the ownership base, a potential deal between the Horsemen’s Group and racecourses on prize-money levels and changes to the shape and size of the fixture list, based on some high-end modelling and forecasting, are among the ideas which are likely to feature in the plan. All the major interest groups have signed up to its analysis and objectives, which can only be a positive sign, though the document is also expected to underline that the recovery process will take years to complete.
As a result, it may be more of a “stability-then-recovery” plan, designed to insulate the sport as much as possible from the depths of the post-lockdown recession, before a hoped-for economic bounce next year, which would bring more certainty about racing’s various income streams.
The problem, however, is that there is only so much that the sport itself can do about the most important step forward: the readmission of spectators to racecourses, and the return to a raceday experience that at least vaguely resembles the old normal of only six months ago. Until paying spectators return in significant numbers, the grim financial reality is that no recovery plan can make any serious headway.
Racing is working on the basis that the government is keen to get fans back into sports stadiums sooner rather than later, and expects to see an announcement on trials with limited attendance at “elite” venues some time this week (though that will probably be too late to include Goodwood’s meeting this weekend).
From racing’s point of view, that kicks the process on into September, when the four-day St Leger Festival at Doncaster, which opens on 9 September, remains an obvious candidate for a pilot. But with the government also intent on getting the country’s children back to school around the same time, who knows?
Its behaviour patterns over the last few weeks suggest that a last-minute change of heart, like the one which scuppered Goodwood’s plan for a 5,000 crowd on 1 August, is always going be a distinct possibility, and the current 1 October target for a general return of socially-distanced crowds at major sporting events would then be out of reach.
And even when the first paying racegoer since March sets foot on a track, the raceday experience will still be a long way short of what it needs to be for the sport to have any future. There will be little or no freedom to roam around, limited hospitality and, in some cases, probably no chance to watch the actual races, in order to restrict movement between the front and back of the grandstand. This will all have knock-on effects on sponsorship and hospitality revenue, adding to the impact of reduced ticket revenue from restricted attendance.
Quick Guide
Greg Wood’s tips for Tuesday
Bangor
12.00 Some Chaos, 12.30 Coulonces, 1.00 Irish Prophecy, 1.35 Percy Street, 2.05 His Dream, 2.35 Scartare, 3.05 Vocaliser, 3.35 Cool Country, 4.05 Le Boulevardier.
Catterick
12.50 Blind Beggar, 1.25 Cormier (nap), 1.55 Stag Horn (nb), 2.25 Star Citizen, 2.55 Deft, 3.25 Mr Carpenter, 4.00 With Thanks, 4.35 Twin Appeal, 5.05 Vivacious Spirit, 5.35 Lagenda.
Yarmouth
3.20 Ridgeway Avenue, 3.55 Flirty Rascal, 4.25 Khabib, 5.00 Molly Mai, 5.30 Sonnet Rose, 6.00 Ubla, 6.30 Areehaa, 7.00 Lunar Deity, 7.30 Smokey
This is the sort of uncertainty that racing, and all major sports for that matter, will have to learn to live with in the months and years ahead. It is also why firm targets, in terms of dates, numbers or income, will be very thin on the ground when the recovery plan is published this week. It will be a step forward, for sure, but also one that emphasises how far we still have to travel, and how steep the climb promises to be.