For the past two weekends, Storm Ciara and Storm Dennis hammered northwestern Europe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that contributed to devastating flooding. As residents still work to recover, another windstorm is looming on the horizon.
A parade of storms has been following a track over northern Europe for the past several weeks, and forecasters say there is no indication that this will change any time soon.
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One storm brought a quick round of blustery rain to the United Kingdom on Thursday, but by the time this storm races through central Europe to end the week, another storm will already be arriving in the U.K.
Rain will once again spread over the region. The heaviest rain is expected to fall from western Ireland to western Scotland as well as northwestern England and Wales.
Winds will turn gusty across northern Europe as the storm sweeps through, but the storm is expected to remain below windstorm criteria.
Storms are usually given a name if wind speeds are forecast to reach 80 km/h (50 mph) or wind gusts exceed 130 km/h (80 mph). However, if a storm is forecast to bring flooding rainfall or accumulating snow it may be given a name regardless of wind speed.
The Met Office, Met Éireann and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute work together to forecast and name storms expected to impact northwestern Europe. Outside of this area, other agencies may have their own naming criteria.
Widespread wind gusts of 72-90 km/h (45-55 mph) are forecast for the region, while isolated wind gusts from northwestern Ireland to Scotland can reach 90-105 km/h (55-65 mph). In the highest elevations an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 120 km/h (75 mph) is possible.
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Heavy rain will spread into southwestern Scandinavia, Denmark and parts of northern Germany through the weekend as blustery showers continue farther west.
A storm forecast to move into northwestern Europe during the early part of next week has the highest potential to become the next windstorm, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The storm is forecast to strengthen quickly as it approaches the U.K. How strong the storm becomes will determine the strength of the winds it produces, and the exact track of the storm will also help to determine how strong winds become across the region.
If a powerful storm tracks over Northern Ireland and across Scotland, stronger wind gusts are expected, especially in these regions. However, if the storm follows a path farther north, the strongest wind gusts may also occur just north of the British Isles.
Regardless of the storm’s track, heavy rain is still in the forecast for areas that have already been on the receiving end of downpours in recent weeks.
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“Through the end of the week and into Monday, parts of Northern Ireland, western Scotland, northwest England and Wales can receive another 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys. “An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mm (8 inches) is possible in these areas.”
This could be particularly devastating for parts of northwestern England and Wales, areas that reported widespread rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) from Storm Dennis alone.
In northern and central England, rainfall totals for the month February are approaching twice the normal amount of rainfall of 50-80 mm (1.97-3.15 inches).
Any amount of rain in these areas in the coming days can aggravate flooding.
Rivers that peaked earlier this week in the wake of Storm Dennis will be slow to recede with more rounds of rain on the way. Roadways can once again become flooded.
“If a roadway is flooded, the safest option is to turn around,” warned Roys.
Even if the storm fails to reach windstorm criteria, gusty winds can still cause damage to weakened structures and knock over trees and power lines.
Behind each storm, cooler air is forecast to filter into the region, bringing wintry showers into the higher elevations of the U.K. and Scandinavia.
Meteorologists will continue to monitor the potential for more windstorms before the storm track is forecast to move north in the spring.
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