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A humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding in north-western Syria, where the government is trying to recapture the opposition-held province of Idlib.
Almost a million civilians have fled their homes since December to escape air strikes and advancing troops – the biggest single displacement of the nine-year war.
The United Nations has said a full-scale battle for Idlib must be avoided at all costs, warning that a failure to do so could result in a “bloodbath”.
What’s so important about Idlib?
The province – along with adjoining parts of Hama, Latakia and Aleppo – is the last stronghold of the rebel and jihadist groups that have been trying to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad since 2011.
The opposition once controlled large swathes of the country, but the Syrian army has retaken most of the territory over the past five years with the help of Russian air strikes and Iran-backed militiamen. Now, the army wants to “liberate” Idlib.
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Rebels and jihadists seized control of the city of Idlib in 2015
Before the war, the province had a population of 1.5 million. The UN estimates that about three million civilians live there now, including one million children. Many have already been displaced multiple times.
Idlib is also strategically important to the government. It borders Turkey to the north and straddles highways running south from the city of Aleppo to the capital Damascus, and west to the Mediterranean city of Latakia.
Who controls the province?
Idlib had been controlled by a number of rival factions, rather than a single group, since it fell to the opposition in 2015. But the dominant force is the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
HTS was set up in 2017 by a group once known as al-Nusra Front before it broke off formal ties with al-Qaeda. It is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN.
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Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the dominant armed opposition group in Idlib
In January 2019, HTS staged a violent takeover of large areas of the province. It expelled some rebel fighters to Aleppo’s Afrin region, which is controlled by factions supported by Turkey, and forced those remaining to accept a civil administration it backs called the “Salvation Government”.
A UN committee estimated in January that HTS had between 12,000 and 15,000 fighters in Idlib and its surrounding areas.
Operating under the umbrella of HTS are two mostly Chinese Uighur groups associated with the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) with about 3,300 fighters in total.
Another prominent jihadist group in Idlib is Hurras al-Din, which is believed to be al-Qaeda’s new branch in Syria. The UN committee estimated it had between 3,500 and 5,000 fighters, up to half them foreigners.
While HTS and Hurras al-Din fighters have clashed in Idlib, they have entered a battlefield alliance to counter the government’s ground offensive.
They have been joined by the mostly Islamist rebel factions fighting under the banner of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
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Rebel fighters have been unable to halt the Syrian army’s advance
It is not clear how many fighters the SNA commands in Idlib, but a report by a US defence department watchdog estimated in January that opposition groups supported by Turkey had between 22,000 and 50,000 fighters.
The SNA also has forces in two strips of territory along the border with Turkey – from Afrin to Jarablus, and from Tal Abyad to Ras al-Ain.
The jihadist group Islamic State (IS) has resources and facilities in Idlib, along with several hundred fighters. But other factions actively oppose its presence.
What led to the current government offensive?
Idlib has been subject to a “de-escalation” agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran since May 2017. The Astana accord called for the cessation of hostilities in four opposition strongholds, including Idlib, the “separation” of jihadists and mainstream rebels inside them, and unhindered aid deliveries.
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Syrian government and Russian air strikes have devastated opposition-held areas
That October, Turkey deployed troops to observation posts on the opposition-held side of the front line in Idlib to monitor the agreement. Russian troops did the same on the government-held side. However, their presence did not stop the Syrian army retaking a large part of eastern Idlib’s countryside over the next four months.
The government then turned its attention to the other opposition bastions – northern Homs province, the Eastern Ghouta, and Deraa and Quneitra provinces.
All three were recaptured by July 2018, following sieges and intense air and ground assaults supported by Russia and Iran that devastated residential areas, killed hundreds of civilians, and displaced hundreds of thousands of others. Many opposition supporters were “evacuated” to Idlib as part of negotiated surrenders.
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The 2018 Sochi accord was agreed by the Turkish and Russian presidents
Troops then began preparing for an all-out assault on Idlib. But one was averted in September 2018 by an agreement between the presidents of Turkey and Russia.
The Sochi accord called for a “demilitarised buffer zone” along the front line. Mainstream rebels were required to pull their heavy weapons out of the zone, and jihadists were told to withdraw altogether. However, it was never fully implemented. Rebels reportedly withdrew some heavy weapons, but the jihadists stayed.
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Hospitals, schools, bakeries and other critical civilian infrastructure have been attacked
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s takeover of Idlib in early 2019 was followed by a marked escalation in hostilities. Government and Russian warplanes stepped up strikes on opposition-held areas, while jihadists shelled government-held territory.
At the end of April, the army launched what Russia called a “limited” offensive in northern Hama and southern Idlib. The UN said 500 civilians were killed and 400,000 displaced over the next four months before a ceasefire was declared.
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The Syrian army has recaptured several major towns in recent months
A further 900,000 civilians – the vast majority of them women and children – have fled their homes since the current government assault began in December, according to the UN. Some 300,000 have been displaced in February alone.
The Syrian army has made significant gains on the ground, recapturing several major towns in southern Idlib and regaining control over the Aleppo-Latakia (M4) and Aleppo-Damascus (M5) highways. The displaced have meanwhile moved north and west to the ever shrinking space considered safe near the Turkish border.
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Turkey, which has sent military observers to Idlib, wants the Syrian army to pull back
Turkey, which already hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees and is worried about another influx, has given the Syrian army until the end of February to withdraw behind the line of Turkish observation posts or face military action.
Turkey has already sent thousands of reinforcements to Idlib and there have been deadly clashes between Syrian and Turkish forces. But President Assad has vowed to continue the offensive to bring the opposition enclave back under his control.
What is happening to the civilians?
UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator Mark Lowcock warned that the crisis in north-western Syria had “reached a horrifying new level”.
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The number of civilians on the move in Idlib province continues to rise
“[The displaced civilians] are traumatised and forced to sleep outside in freezing temperatures because camps are full. Mothers burn plastic to keep children warm. Babies and small children are dying because of the cold,” he said.
Mr Lowcock described the violence as “indiscriminate”, with health facilities, schools, mosques and markets being hit and put out of action. He said there was a serious risk of disease outbreaks and that basic infrastructure was “falling apart”.
“A huge relief operation, across the border from Turkey is under way, but it is overwhelmed. The equipment and facilities being used by aid workers are being damaged. Humanitarian workers themselves are being displaced and killed.”
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Displaced Syrians are facing snow, bitter winds, icy rain and winter storms
The UN launched a winter appeal in January. It is calling urgently for tents, thermal blankets and clothing, as well as specialist counselling to help deal with trauma.
Mr Lowcock said “the biggest humanitarian horror story of the 21st Century” would only be avoided if those countries with influence in Syria brokered a ceasefire.
Last year, he warned that an all-out assault on Idlib could result in “the loss of huge numbers of people – running into hundreds of thousands, possible even more”.