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Macy’s Herald Square opens its doors at 5 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day for thousands of Black Friday shoppers in search of amazing sales and doorbuster deals, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2019 in New York. (Diane Bondareff/AP Images for Macy’s) |
AccuWeather accurately forecast that the weather would be “less of a factor” impacting 2019 holiday retail sales than in most years and the company’s prediction of a 3.6 percent increase over 2018 was closest to the 3.4 percent growth reported by the MasterCard Spending PulseTM. That would put total holiday retail sales for 2019 at $725 billion; AccuWeather predicted holiday retail sales would reach $726.4 billion.
The 3.4 percent, or $23.8 billion, retail sales growth reported by MasterCard was a significant boost from the 2.1 percent growth seen during the 2018 holiday season reported by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
AccuWeather forecast no major deviations from normal temperatures – either above or below normal compared to 2018 – for the 2019 holiday retail sales season, which is defined as November and December, and the prediction held true.
AccuWeather’s retail holiday sales forecast considers the additional impact of weather conditions and the AccuWeather forecasts on holiday shopping. Most holiday sales estimates look solely at economic trends without any consideration of weather forecasts, a variable which drives decision-making and planning for virtually every activity. In fact, AccuWeather has found that on average up to 30 percent of the variability in national holiday sales each year can be explained by weather.
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“As we said in October, the weather would not play a major role this past year as it sometimes has,” said AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers. “It was a little colder than normal in the Northeast, but the effect was trivial. Snowstorms in the Midwest did cut sales slightly as we had predicted; overall, weather cut sales by about one-tenth of 1 percent of what it would have been, so it was not a big factor. The economic factors, such as a strong stock market and a healthy economy, had a more significant impact.”
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AccuWeather’s holiday sales forecast considers the additional impact of weather conditions on holiday shopping. Most holiday sales estimates look solely at economic trends without any consideration of weather forecasts, a variable which drives decision-making and planning for virtually every activity. In fact, AccuWeather has found that approximately up to 30 percent of the variability in national holiday sales each year can be explained by weather.
Many businesses in the retail sector and other industries rely on AccuWeather’s predictive analytics that enable businesses to proactively benefit from upcoming changes in the weather, to more effectively plan and to eliminate interruptions and losses. AccuWeather correlates refined historical weather data, complex data models and the AccuWeather long-range forecast to provide customized, actionable insights that help people make the best weather-impacted decisions, all the way down to the level of individual stores.
The AccuWeather model incorporates AccuWeather forecasts as well as economic indicators and historical shopping trend data and has proved to be more accurate in its 2017, 2018 and 2019 holiday forecast predictions than other sources. The NRF predicted an increase of 3.8 percent to 4.2 percent in 2019 compared to 2018. Although the NRF reported an increase in 2019 holiday retail sales of 4.1 percent, higher than the MasterCard total (3.4 percent) and AccuWeather’s estimate (3.6 percent), “We believe the actual increase was less than that,” Myers said.
Last year, AccuWeather estimated a 4.1 percent increase, which proved more on target than the NRF prediction of 4.3 to 4.8 percent increase. And two years ago, AccuWeather was also more accurate when it projected a 4.2 percent increase in 2017 holiday retail sales over 2016 holiday spending, compared to the NRF prediction of 3.6 to 4 percent.
The average annual growth in holiday retail sales from 2015-18 was 3.4 percent.
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