Antarctica is Earth’s southernmost continent and one of its last unspoilt locations, reserved for the use of around 1,000 around-the-year scientists studying the impact of climate change by digging into the history of the planet. This has remained unchanged in a century, since the first expedition led by Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen in 1911, just five weeks ahead of notorious British traveller Robert Scott. The polar desert is governed by parties under the Antarctic Treaty, which entered into force in 1961, setting aside the icy continent as a scientific preserve, establishes freedom of scientific investigation, and bans military activity on the continent.
But climate change is threatening that, paired with pressure from nations like Russia and China who want to exploit resources below the ice.
Klaus Dodds, professor of geopolitics at Royal Holloway, University of London, told Sky News on Monday: “If Antarctica continues to change thanks to things like climate change, will that also lead to a shift in the way that we think of Antarctica?
“Does Antarctica stop being so exceptional [once the ice melts]?
“It means that countries like China are going to become increasingly dominant in demanding a voice about how Antarctica is governed.”
Dr Dodds noted that whales and seals have been heavily exploited in the past, but in the future, minerals such as zinc, iron and uranium, could be targets.
At present, Chile and Argentina have both made territorial claims that overlap the British Antarctic Territory (BAC), which dates back before the treaty as a separate dependency of the Falkland Islands, Graham Land, the South Orkney Islands, and the South Shetland Islands.
But all three country’s claims were suspended after the treaty came into force, which states: “No acts or activities taking place while the present treaty is in force shall constitute a basis for asserting, supporting or denying a claim to territorial sovereignty in Antarctica.
“No new claim, or enlargement of an existing claim, to territorial sovereignty, shall be asserted while the present treaty is in force.”
Most countries do not recognise the old territorial claims of Antarctica, but climate change could plunge the 54 parties of the treaty into a scrap for their previous slices.
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“Actually, as we go into the 2020s we’re going to see that Antarctica is ever more exposed to these broader geopolitical, economic and cultural currents that make it hard to continue with the old business model.”
Jane Rumble, head of the polar region’s department at the UK Foreign Office, admitted that the treaty is not perfect, but essential to keeping the peace for now.
She said: “We’re not complacent or naive that the treaty is the best thing ever.
“But the evidence shows that most states feel that they’re better off cooperating within the treaty to understand Antarctica and have a say in how it’s governed than trying to go alone.”