If you enjoy a thing, it’s only natural to want more of it, as those of us who have done extremely well at the trough in the past fortnight are keenly aware. How, then, do we explain the recent Twitter polls which have come out resoundingly against the idea of adding a fifth day to the Cheltenham Festival?
Here is one. Here is another. In both cases, votes in favour of an extra day failed to make it as high as 20% after the idea was discussed on ITV by Cheltenham’s new chairman.
This, in my view, goes a long way beyond mere resistance to change. People are concerned, rightly, about dilution of competition and its potential to kill off the Festival’s appeal.
One of flat racing’s biggest problems is over-provision of top-class races, enabling the best horses to avoid each other for much of the summer. It’s not such a hot topic in jump racing because almost everyone wants to win at the Festival, so the best horses tend to turn up there if they’re fit and we find out who’s best.
But, as extra races are added to the Festival, it becomes less The Place Where Champions Clash and more The Place Where Champions Duff Up Inferior Rivals At Short Odds. Contrary to what some may believe, 70,000 people will not pay top dollar for the pleasure of being close to really talented horses. What they want is to see them race against each other; instead, we are in danger of creating a race for each high-quality animal, so they can all start at 1-5 and win easily.
When the Festival was just three days long, odds-on favourites were rare. There were none in 2002 or 2003. There were three in 2004, the last year of the three-day Festival, because those great champions Best Mate, Baracouda and Moscow Flyer were all at the height of their reputations. Three odds-on favourites from 60 races over the three years is a rate of 5%.
Over the last three years, 84 Festival races have produced 11 odds-on favourites, a rate of 13%. In other words, odds-on favourites are more than twice as common at the Festival and while that probably has something to do with the concentration of equine talent in fewer hands, it is mostly because of the mushrooming opportunities.
Those short-priced favourites are shorter than they used to be, too. In 2004, nothing went off shorter than 8-11. In the last three years, we’ve had favourites at 4-11, 4-6, 1-2, 4-7, 1-4 and 2-9. No, they didn’t all win but anticipation is a huge part of the Festival’s appeal and, in anticipation, those races were widely seen as foregone conclusions.
If we add the necessary races to give the Festival a fifth day, I worry that we’ll end up with odds-on favourites in every fifth race. Unless we somehow increase the available pool of equine talent, the best horses will simply be more spaced out than ever before.
Trainers and owners are bound to love the idea of more Festival races, because it increases their chance of enjoying that moment in the winner’s enclosure that everyone covets. But those who love the sport must tell them, politely but firmly, that it is a terrible idea.
The Festival is a massively successful event which puts racing at the centre of the sporting world every March. But there is no law that it has to remain that way.
Fortunately, there are lots of intelligent, sensible people running the racecourse and in senior positions at the Jockey Club. I have every hope that, despite the financial temptations, they will see a fifth day for the elephant trap it really is.
Monday’s best bets
Sam Thomas has made a steady start to his training career but in the past fortnight he’s had as many winners as Evan Williams and Venetia Williams put together, ie two. While they seem to be going out of form, he must be pretty happy about life, having saddled just three runners in that time, and he’s on a very respectable 19% for the season.
Thomas saddles Mick Manhattan (4.00) in the closing handicap hurdle at Chepstow and I like his chance at 5-1, from the opening 8s. He showed promise on his handicap debut here in November, staying on into third, and was predictably outpaced on good ground next time. He will not meet good ground here.
Exelerator Express (1.50) appeals for his hurdles debut at 6-1 in what looks a weak maiden contest. Second in two bumpers, Neil Mulholland’s charge is bred to make a hurdler. The favourite, Beaufort West, needs a wind operation to have made a significant difference.
There might be a few spills in the 16-runner novice handicap chase and the market seems to be underestimating Tanrudy (2.25) at 9-1, given he is one of just two in the field to have won over fences. He’ll be on the front end from the off, meaning he will miss any trouble that happens in behind.
Ayr 1.05 Miss Aloud 1.35 Ripstick 2.10 Sporty Yankee 2.40 Ettila De Sivola 3.15 Ardera Cross 3.45 Castle Rushen
Chepstow 12.50 Born To Please 1.20 John Betjeman 1.50 Exelerator Express (nb) 2.25 Tanrudy 2.55 King Erik 3.30 Duc Kauto 4.00 Mick Manhattan (nap)
Wolverhampton 4.15 Sarasota 4.45 Dream Mount 5.15 Will To Win 5.45 Illustrious Spirit 6.15 Clem A 6.45 Bee Able 7.15 Global Giant 7.45 Starlight Romance