Lewis Hamilton needs to beat Mercedes team-mate Valtteri Bottas by 14 points at the Mexican Grand Prix if the British driver is to claim his sixth F1 world championship.
If the 34-year-old wins the race at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez then Bottas will need to finish no higher than fifth from Hamlton to be crowned champion.
This placement would see a 15 point gap between the pair and the Finn wouldn’t be able to prevent Hamilton taking the title even if he picked up the extra point for the fastest lap.
Alternatively if Bottas failed to finish the race, Hamilton would need to secure a place on the podium to claim the title.
However, Bottas’ performances this season in combination with Mercedes reliability suggest the odds are against Hamilton claiming the title on Sunday.
Bottas only has one DNF this season, in Germany, and has only finished outside the top five places on one other occasion, when he took eighth at the Hungary Grand Prix.
Hamilton’s team-mate also has amassed an impressive 13 podium finishes from 17 races so far this season.
The Brit is currently tied on five world titles with the legendary Argentine driver Juan Manuel Fangio and so another trophy would see him hold second place in the overall rankings to himself.
Currently Michael Schumacher tops the charts with seven F1 world championships, five of which he won consecutively with Ferrari from 2000 to 2004.
But Hamilton isn’t convinced he’ll finish far enough ahead of Bottas in Mexcio to accomplish the feat this Sunday.
“I don’t remember if in a season I’ve finished 14 points ahead of Valtteri at any point and, if it has, it may have been one race, maybe,” Hamilton said.
“So I anticipate it will be a difficult weekend – Valtteri has been strong all year and obviously won the last race so I expect him to be strong this weekend too.
“Doesn’t matter where it’s done, as long as you get it done then that’s what I’m trying to do.
“I’m fully aware that there are still plenty of points on the table and I have to fully deliver over the next four races.”
The Mexican Grand Prix also isn’t strongest track for Mercedes and is expected to favour the Ferrari car, which has an advantage due to the tracks long straights.
“I think we’re not massively far off the Red Bulls,” said Hamilton.
“But the Ferraris, they just keep turning up their engine down those straights.
“The difference between us and them is massive in a straight line, and I think between the rest of the drivers as well.”