Pool A
Story so far Who would have thought it? The Pool of Death. Actually, there were clues this might be an interesting group. If a pool can be known by the strength of its third seed, Japan began as the highest ranked of these. Still, beating the No 1 team in the world was really not supposed to happen. All those beyond Ireland will rejoice that it did. Results such as this, like the one Japan achieved by beating South Africa in 2015, are the clearest indication that rugby’s status quo might be changing.
What’s still at stake? So beating the No 9 team in the world ought to be easy. If Japan win the pool stage’s grand finale against Scotland on Sunday, they will top the group, earning them the juicy prospect of a Tokyo quarter-final against South Africa (see Brighton 2015). Assuming Scotland take maximum points against Russia on Wednesday, they must beat Japan to qualify and match Japan for any bonus points. If Japan lose with two bonus points the hosts will still top the group. Meanwhile, Ireland need to beat Samoa. The equally juicy prospect of the All Blacks would await if they qualify behind Japan but they could win the pool if Scotland beat Japan. All three could end level on 15 points, in which case points difference will decide top spot, and the head-to-head between second and third then deciding the runner-up.
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Team guides
Pool A: Ireland, Japan, Russia, Samoa, Scotland
Pool B: Canada, Italy, Namibia, New Zealand, South Africa
Pool C: Argentina, England, France, Tonga, USA
Pool D: Australia, Fiji, Georgia, Uruguay, Wales
Pool B
Story so far If there were such thing as a Pool of Burgeoning Life, this would be it. To have New Zealand and South Africa in the same pool is a novel twist of deadliness but thereafter the quality falls away horribly. Italy are still tier one’s poor relations, and Canada and Namibia are the only teams here outside the top 20. Sure enough, we were glued to the opener between the two big boys and then said goodbye to the pool. Let’s not expand the World Cup, eh?
What’s still at stake? Oh dear. This bit is meant to be 120 words. How to drag out the explanation that qualification from Pool B was settled after one game, New Zealand first, South Africa second? The rest has been/will be formalities. South Africa will finish with a bonus-point win over Canada on Tuesday, and New Zealand likewise against Italy on Saturday. On Sunday, Canada and Namibia play off to see if either can break into the top 20. It will be a good game but TV ratings are expected to be modest. Meanwhile, New Zealand and South Africa must gird themselves for big quarter‑finals after a few weeks of gentle preparation. Echoes of 2007 for the All Blacks. How many words is that now?
Pool C
Story so far This was meant to be the toughest pool but actually it has turned into a bit of a procession, too, albeit with each match bearing the possibility at least of an upset. England have not been above criticism in any of their matches, but either their opponents have flopped disappointingly each time or England are doing better than it seems. Certainly, France have struggled to put away the same opposition with any conviction, but both teams have qualified with a game to spare.
What’s still at stake? England and France face off on Saturday for the right to qualify as pool winners. Will either consider that old chestnut of the “strategic” path to the final? In other words, avoiding the All Blacks. The winners will probably play Australia in the quarters, the runners-up Wales – so much the same sort of assignment. If successful, the pool winners would then likely face the All Blacks (or Ireland?), the runners-up South Africa. Ah, but if you want to win a World Cup, you have to beat everyone, runs the counterargument. This is self‑evidently untrue. England are far less likely to be entertaining any notion of throwing Saturday’s match. They have a whiff of defiance about them. It could be South Africa who are happiest about that.
Pool D
Story so far The only other upset of the pool stage saw Uruguay beat Fiji. Glorious though this was, it was not the upset a neutral might have chosen. Fiji are a side packed full of first‑class talent, who many fancied to make the quarter-finals. Alas, they are now reduced to trying to throw a spanner in someone else’s works (Wales’s). Otherwise, the key game in this pool was Wales-Australia, won by the former in just the sort of bloody-minded fashion they have made their own lately.
What’s still at stake? Fiji may yet throw that spanner on Wednesday but it would be of limited use to them. Wales finish against Uruguay on Sunday and will surely take maximum points. In which case it would be Australia who likely benefit, the Wallabies finishing with a game against Georgia on Friday. An upset there is not quite out of the question, but it would be big – of Tonga‑France-in-2011 proportions, if not quite Brighton 2015. If Wales beat Fiji (and they are currently 17-point favourites to do so) they will top the group with a win over Uruguay, which would pitch Australia into the England‑New Zealand side of the draw. Fiji look safe for third place, which would mean Georgia back on the qualification beat for 2023.