(Bloomberg) — Sebastian Kurz is on track to return as Austria’s chancellor after a historic election victory, but the road to a new government is fraught with hazards.
Austrian voters made his People’s Party and the Greens the clear winners in snap elections triggered by the collapse of his alliance with the nationalist Freedom Party. If the conservative and environmentalist groups can hash out a deal, a coalition would break new ground in Austria and send a signal across Europe.
“This is a great victory for Kurz, but it’s not making it any easier to form a government,” said Thomas Hofer, a political analyst in Vienna. “So much is standing in the way in terms of policy — especially when it comes to migration or social issues. And there is a lot of resistance at the Greens’ grassroots level.”
The People’s Party is projected to have won 37.1% of the vote, widening support for the second straight election, according to public broadcaster ORF. Amid surging concerns about global warming, the Greens tripled their share to 14%, making them a leading candidate in a governing coalition.
Kurz deflected questions about a possible coalition, while Green leader Werner Kogler made it clear that he won’t easily bend to the will of the 33-year-old.
The former chancellor “praised his last government until yesterday,” Kogler said, adding that an alliance would require “radical changes” from the policies pursued under the coalition with the Freedom Party. “We’ll see if it even makes sense to talk. At the moment, we’re miles apart.”
The Freedom Party suffered the sharpest losses, dropping to 16% from 26%. The far-right group’s support suffered more than expected from the fallout of the so-called Ibiza affair — an undercover video that showed party officials currying favor with a fake Russian oligarch’s niece on the Spanish island. The group backed off its ambitions to revive its coalition with the People’s Party.
“We don’t interpret this as a mandate to continue this government,” Freedom Party General Secretary Harald Vilimsky told ORF. “The voters didn’t make us strong enough for that.”
With five diverse groups entering Austria’s parliament, the vote reflects the splintered state of European politics and the surging importance of environmental concerns. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU lost its lead over the country’s Greens in a recent nationwide poll. Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and the Fridays for Future demonstrations have increased the awareness of climate change. The Greens in Austria failed to enter parliament just two years ago. The liberal Neos also expanded their support.
Other cooperation options might be less appealing for Kurz. Joining up with the Social Democrats, the default partner for decades, would make a mockery of his promise of change. The Social Democrats, the biggest opposition group, got just 21.8% for their worst result in a national election since the alpine country was created in the aftermath of World War I.
Renewing his vows with the Freedom Party would mean relying on a volatile group that triggered the collapse of his last government and has suffered further damage to its reputation from the Ibiza scandal.
Kurz could potentially seek to rule in a minority government, a rarity in Austrian politics. There has been a minority government only once in Austria’s history. It lasted less than two years in the 1970s.
Talks to form a government have historically taken months in Austria. Given the complex starting point, there’s unlikely to be a quicker resolution this time. Until the new government is sworn in, caretaker Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein will remain in office.
Austria has been ruled by the interim government since Kurz lost a no-confidence vote in parliament by an unlikely alliance between the Freedom Party and the Social Democrats. That sparked the snap ballot, with about 6.4 million Austrians called to elect a new national parliament. About 75% of voters turned out to cast ballots.
–With assistance from Matthias Wabl and Jonathan Tirone.
To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Groendahl in Vienna at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at [email protected], Chris Reiter
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