Nick Rust said a surprising thing last week, while commenting on the whip debate at a meeting of stable staff in Lambourn. “According to a survey recently, 98% of people under the age of 30 have never seen a horse in the flesh in Britain,” said the chief executive of the British Horseracing Authority, who was trying to explain how he sees the context for our latest debate on whip use.
When the alleged stat was posted on Twitter, Rust was roundly mocked for it. I asked the BHA’s press office if they could substantiate the stat and was told they could not immediately say which survey it came from. I believe that Rust heard it from someone in the industry some time ago.
Rust was answering an audience question and therefore talking without a script. I give him credit for being there at all, as not every person in his position would be interested in attending the AGM of the National Association of Racing Staff.
But he knew, and mentioned, that a reporter was present, so he ought to have known that any such outlandish claims would be passed on to the public. I checked with the British Horse Society, who pointed out that a survey published this year by the British Equestrian Trade Association shows three million people in Britain had actually ridden a horse within the previous 12 months; that’s about 4.5% of the population who have not just seen a horse in the flesh but actually sat on one recently.
From the pages sent to me, it seems this survey did not cover the age of those riding but a previous survey, in 2011, found that a quarter of all British riders were under the age of 16. Since that age group makes up only 19% of the population you could say that the young are over-represented among riders.
All of which suggests that, in the absence of further evidence, Rust’s stat is probably not accurate. And it matters because, while I admire Rust’s willingness to express a view, a chief executive should not be trying to back up his views with dodgy stats in a situation where he knows he will be quoted.
Clearly a stat like the one he cited has the capacity to undermine racing, since it tends to suggest the wider public are not engaged with horsey sports. Rust cites it because he thinks the whip rules need to change to reflect the views of a wider society with no connection to the game, but if he is going to make that case stick, he had better get some believable insights into what those views are.
I’m afraid this stat is no more convincing than his argument on Racing TV in the spring that we should all be worried because, as he said at the time: “There are offices in London now which don’t have milk in the office fridges. They don’t have it because milk is bad. Milk leads to cows being forced to be milked and more methane in society. The world is changing.”
Racing’s chief executive needs to be a lot more careful about the evidence he adduces to support his arguments.
Monday’s best bets
I haven’t enjoyed my recent engagements with Catterick handicaps but there’s a handful of horses that catch my eye at the Scotch Corner track today. Night Law (3.00) is especially interesting at 7-1, having bounced back to winning form over this course and distance a fortnight ago, when blinkers were fitted for the first time.
Yonks ago, this mare won a Sandown maiden for Andrew Balding. She lost her way handicapping for Richard Fahey the next year but she was racing off marks in the 70s. After two seasons in Ireland with low-profile trainers, she had crashed down to 46 before scoring on her third start for Katie Scott. Now up 5lb to a rating of 51, she is probably still well treated.
Good Night Mr Tom (2.30) looks fairly priced at 6-4 to follow up his nursery success, his first run since being gelded, while the 15-2 shot Tapis Libre (5.35) has come down to an attractive mark and has a visor on for only the second time.
Pick of the Windsor card tonight could be Perfect Refuge (7.00), a Clive Cox filly who was arguably unlucky when beaten here a fortnight ago and now has a weight pull with the winner. She’s 11-2.
Catterick
2.00 Schumli 2.30 Good Night Mr Tom 3.00 Night Law 3.30 Ahorsewithnoname 4.00 Chaplin Bay 4.30 Hippeia 5.00 I’ll Be Good 5.35 Tapis Libre (nb)
Lingfield
2.15 Zappiness 2.45 Scheme 3.15 Little Bird 3.45 Al Messila 4.15 Sloane Garden (nap) 4.45 Tarseekh 5.15 Aquadabra
Windsor
5.30 Foxy Femme 6.00 Skontonovski 6.30 Look Surprised 7.00 Perfect Refuge 7.30 Passion And Glory 8.00 Zoffee
Bangor
5.40 Carry On 6.10 Sue Be It 6.40 So Lonely 7.10 Silver Man 7.40 Montys Angel 8.10 Wise Coco