The leaders of all of Spain’s main political parties invited their supporters to prepare for office as campaigning for one of the tightest national elections in decades draws to a close. No single party will get an overall majority and opinion polls suggest all five leading contenders have a realistic chance of playing a role in government. Divisive and often ill-tempered, the election has been fought mainly on emotive topics – notably issues of national identity linked to Catalonia’s drive for independence – with the economy taking a rare back seat.
Official opinion polls ended last Monday with up to four in 10 voters still undecided.
Since then, informal soundings by media organisations suggest voters’ intentions may have shifted, with Vox the possible beneficiary.
Vox, one of the five parties with a chance of entering government, would become the first far-right party to sit in parliament since 1982.
The party, aligned to a broader populist movement emerging across Europe, has become the focus of speculation about shifts in voting intentions since official polling closed.
Vox, whose candidates include retired military officers who have openly praised dictator Francisco Franco, is expected to win around 30 seats with 11 per cent of the vote.
The six-year-old party is led by the son of a Basque politician whose dad survived three attempts on his life by terror group ETA and has admitted he always carries a Smith & Wesson gun.
Dad-of-four Santiago Abascal, a keep-fit fanatic who last year completed a legendary military-organised race known as the 101km of Ronda, could end up with a ministerial post in a right-wing controlled Parliament.
But analysts say the Vox vote could also ruin the possibility of a coalition government led by the more moderate right-wing Popular Party which Abascal was a long-time member of – and end up helping current socialist PM Pedro Sanchez hold on to power with the help of left-wing Podemos and regional parties.
Pollsters have been struggling to predict its potential impact and media outlets with access to unofficial soundings are suggesting the party could do better than expected.
This raises the prospect of a loose right-wing coalition led by Pablo Casado of the conservative PP party and also including centre-right Ciudadanos.
Mr Casado said his party was the best option for removing Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez from office, and urged those on the right to vote tactically.
He told a rally in Madrid: “If we want Spain to stay unified we need to unify our forces.
“Only we can lead this movement of change and we must use our heads to think about who we vote for.”
Closing polls had PP on 20 percent, Ciudadanos on 14 percent and Vox on 11 percent but Spanish media reports interest in the newcomers has snowballed in recent days.
Vox was founded in 2013, part of a broader anti-establishment, far-right movement that has also spread across – among others – Italy, France and Germany.
While it is careful to distance itself from the ideology of late dictator Francisco Franco, Vox’s signature policies include repealing laws banning Franco-era symbols and on gender-based violence, and shifting power away from Spain’s regional governments.
Additional reporting by Gerard Couzens