There is always hope. Horse racing is an industry built on selling dreams, however fanciful, so its inhabitants are readily able to persuade themselves that everything will turn out all right, even as the bad news accumulates.
On Friday that bad news took the form of three new confirmed cases of equine influenza in active racehorses, taking the total to six. Racing professionals could reassure themselves with the thought that all six horses are based in the same stable, that of Cheshire-based Donald McCain. Perhaps the disease had not spread outside his yard. Perhaps this had all been caused by a single bad batch of the anti-flu vaccine which so many trainers give their charges at around this time of year. That would be much better than the alternative, that this is the emergence of a new strain of the flu virus which can defeat existing vaccines.
But last night evidence that could squash such comforting theories was on its way from Durham to a Newmarket lab. It took the form of three samples from horses at Rebecca Menzies’ yard, reported to racing’s ruling body as exhibiting symptoms of EI. Menzies had runners on Tuesday and Wednesday, when they rubbed shoulders, hopefully in a merely figurative sense, with horses from 50 other stables, all of which are now part of the lockdown paralysing the sport.
For the time being racing could theoretically resume on Wednesday but any new confirmed cases at yards other than McCain’s would put that in jeopardy. In the meantime the logistics of taking and testing samples from a four-figure number of horses must be close to overwhelming.
The Gloucestershire-based Kim Bailey, who is as yet not on lockdown, reported through his blog what he had learned from talking to less fortunate rivals about their experience of the testing. “It was soon obvious that there were not enough swabs to go around and probably not enough vets either,” Bailey wrote.
“Personally I don’t believe we will race next week. I do believe we will race shortly after, providing all the thousands of swabs taken show up to be clean.”
But Bailey is possibly more pessimistic, by temperament, than most trainers. “They’re coping pretty well, on the whole,” said Rupert Arnold at the National Trainers’ Federation. “They all seem to be supportive of how it’s being handled and very keen that everybody observes the biosecurity guidelines. They’re frustrated about not being able to race just now but the main thing is to protect these really big fixtures on the horizon.”
That feeling, that February’s action is expendable compared with what follows, seems widely shared. After all, it would be common to lose jump-racing fixtures to bad weather for a week or more at this time of year; if EI is seen off in the space of six days or even 12, little lasting damage will have been done.
“The reality is no one knows whether we’ll be able to race next week,” said Nick Smith, spokesman for Ascot racecourse, which would host the feature card next Saturday if it is permitted to do so. “It would clearly be a great shame to lose that fixture but these things pale into complete insignificance next to the priority of getting this controlled and moving on.
“The BHA seem to have handled this impeccably so far, they’re going through the right processes and we wait to see what happens. I don’t think it would help for anyone to put pressure on for a timescale as to when we can resume.”
Jockeys, meanwhile, can be relied on for a thoroughly pragmatic response. Two British-based riders, Tom Scudamore and Sean Bowen, have managed to get themselves mounts for Sunday in Ireland, where racing continues. Others have gone and booked themselves skiing holidays, because some people cannot let a weekend go by without risking their necks.
Saturday’s tips from Ireland
It’s very game of the ITV team to provide us with some action by hopping over to Ireland and screening four races from Naas. Few British punters will be really familiar with the circuit and perhaps that goes for British tipsters as well, but an effort must be made. We may, after all, be relying on Irish racing for some time.
In the O’Driscoll O’Neil Handicap Chase, a case can be made for the 12-1 shot Close Shave (3.10), who led on the run-in before being collared in the same race a year ago. Jessie Harrington stepped him up into the Leinster National after that but he couldn’t cope there. It’s possible to read his form this season as a build-up to another tilt at this, and a better showing here would hardly surprise.
2.10 Naas This looks an uncompetitive mares’ chase, two of the seven entrants being on offer at 100-1. Pravalaguna is the standout talent on show. She really asserted herself in a beginners’ chase at Limerick over Christmas, though her early fencing was not entirely convincing. Baie Des Iles has talent but this distance is about half what she needs.
2.40 Naas After a disorganised round of jumping, it was quite something to see Band Of Outlaws power into a close third on his hurdling debut at Cork in December. Just two weeks later, he was much more fluent in victory at Limerick and he may show a bit more pace than his preferred stablemate Konitho.
3.40 Naas A move to Shane Crawley’s yard seems to have helped Thereisnodoubt, who was going well until a late fall in November and then beat 16 rivals by nine lengths at Clonmel last month. Cappuccino Man holds each-way claims at a bigger price.
12.40 City Island 1.10 Sky Marshal 1.40 Advantage Point
2.10 Pravalaguna 2.40 Band Of Outlaws 3.10 Close Shave
3.40 Thereisnodoubt 4.10 Front View