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Nov. 6, 2018 / 1:52 AM GMT
By Alex Seitz-Wald
A divided nation is waiting anxiously to see what voters will do as they head to the polls Tuesday in what is widely seen as one of the most consequential midterm elections in memory.
Voters may reject President Donald Trump and the nationalist vision for America he’s championed in the closing weeks of the race, or they could signal assent by returning Republicans to power in both chambers of Congress.
Accurate polling and understanding the electorate has proven especially challenging in the wake of Trump’s surprise 2016 victory, adding a bit of uncertainty to most analysts’ predictions that Democrats will win the 23 seats they need to flip the House, while falling short of retaking the Senate, where most of the key races are playing out in deep red states.
What is clear, however, is that few congressional elections have ever captivated so many Americans.
Early voting has exceeded 2014 levels in most states, according to TargetSmart, while campaign spending has been pushed to a record $5.2 billion, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
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The superlatives demonstrate the significance millions of Americans have invested in this midterms, believing it will help determine the future of the country and who gets to be a part of it.
“The character of this country is on the ballot. Who we are is on the ballot,” former President Barack Obama, hoarse from campaigning, told Democratic volunteers at a Virginia campaign office Monday.
The race has already made history with a record number of women and people of color running for office, giving voters a chance to make a number of firsts: First transgender governor, first Native American woman in Congress, first black woman governor, among others.
Trump is not on the ballot, but the president has explicitly sought to make this election a referendum on his agenda as he campaigns for Republicans across the country.
“I need you to vote for a Republican House and a Republican Senate so we can continue this incredible movement,” Trump told supporters in Indiana on Friday.
In almost every midterm since the Civil War, Americans have opted to put a check on the president by handing more power to the opposition party in Congress.
The booming economy could cushion the blow for the GOP this year, but Trump has instead tended to focus on darker themes, for instance highlighting a caravan of migrants moving towards the U.S. border as much as he has the low unemployment rate.
If Democrats win the House, they plan to wield Congress’ vast oversight authority against the White House and could even vote to impeach the president, through removing him from office seems out of the question, since that requires a supermajority in the Senate.