Speaking to Deutsche Welle News, journalist Bettina Vestring claimed German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be blamed for the “dramatic” impact the Bavaria election will have on Berlin on Sunday.
The Christian Social Union (CSU), which is Ms Merkel’s coalition partner and Bavarian sister party to the CDU, will be contesting the vote on October 14.
Ms Vestring claimed the CSU will “suffer badly” at the Sunday’s regional election causing Angela Merkel’s allies to put the blame entirely on the German Chancellor.
She said: “Ultimately I think perhaps not even that much will change in Bavaria.
“I think in some ways the effects will be more dramatic in Berlin because the ruling coalition of Angela Merkel in Berlin, the parties it consists of are set to suffer in Bavaria and suffer badly.
“That’s true not just for the CSU but also for the Social Democrats.
“Angela Merkel herself will carry some of the blame for the Bavarian results.
“And her coalition partners will make sure she will take the maximum of it and unrest within her own party is growing.”
The Berlin expert claimed the Bavarian vote on Sunday will be a “victory for democracy”.
She added: “I stand by that. I think it will be a victory for democracy on two parts.
“First of all, I think it’s absurd for democracy to be ruled by the same party for 60 years.
“In that sense, moving closer towards a change of Government in Bavaria is good for democracy and it’s also good for the state because parties that are too long in power get too crusty.
“But secondly, perhaps even more important in this time and this political climate that we have now, I think the CSU in Bavaria is getting punished for being too populist.”
Voters will take to the polls on Sunday to elect the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.
The regional elections could weaken the national government if the CSU is not successful and blame is placed on Horst Seehofer, who is Ms Merkel’s Interior Minister and leader of the CSU.
A poll published by German broadcaster ARD last week showed support for the CSU had fallen to 33 percent, despite usually getting around 50 percent of the vote.
The poll showed the Greens Party in second place, with 18 percent voter support.
This was ahead of the Social Democrats, who were at 11 percent, with the far-right AfD slightly behind with 10 percent.
As a result, this could be the CSU’s worst performance since 1950, when it received 27.4 percent of the vote.
Bavaria is the largest state, and one of the richest, in Germany, so the results will make a big difference.