According to the report, the number of completed sales in the UK fell month on month by 0.8 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis, with 99,270 residential property transactions recorded in July, compared to 100,060 in June, equating to a fall of 3.2 per cent on an annualised basis.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the total number of residential transactions decreased from 113,340 in June to 105,940 in July.
However, with house price growth still in positive territory, albeit at modest levels, today’s figures suggest the lack of available homes for sale is possibly propping up prices, given that transaction numbers are flatlining.
Mike Scott, chief property analyst at online estate agency Yopa is philosophical about the data and commented: “The July figures suggest that this year’s housing market continues to be slightly less active than in recent years.
“We do not expect any significant change in activity levels compared with last year as we move into the busier autumn housing market.
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“We should end up with a total of just under 1.2 million house sales in 2018, the slowest year since 2013.
“However, this is still a much more active market than in the years after the 2008 credit crunch when we had a five-year period with fewer than a million house sales per year.”
Brian Murphy, Head of Lending for Mortgage Advice Bureau is also relatively optimistic, and said: “This morning’s report from HMRC provides us with the number of Residential Transactions in the UK for July, and therefore provides us with a completely independent measure of the market.
“Looking at the unadjusted figures for the UK, the volume of transactions last month is mostly unchanged on the same period last year, and also shows a similar decrease in transaction numbers between June and July, suggesting that it’s been ‘business as usual’ over the summer in terms of the number of sales completed.”
Brian continued: “That all said, the topline number of transactions doesn’t provide a regional breakdown, therefore doesn’t highlight the regional variations of market activity which are still prevalent, with some areas such as the North and Midlands buoyant when compared to the cooling environment of London and the South East.
“What today’s numbers do tell us, however, is that broadly speaking, the market remains steady despite the current economic and political headwinds, and certainly would suggest that the UK housing market remains resilient, with many consumers continuing with their personal plans in terms of moving home, regardless of what’s happening in the headlines.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman added: “Transaction numbers are more relevant when assessing the health of the housing market than property prices, which tend to be more volatile and influenced by stock shortages.
“July’s HMRC data is more encouraging than the previous month’s in that the transaction levels are not declining by as much as they were.
“This reflects what we are seeing on the ground – a broadly flat market with one month up, one month down, and no clear pattern.”
As was reported yesterday, with average transaction times from offer accepted to completion standing at thirteen weeks, we’re now edging towards the usually busy autumn market with those who want to move before Christmas aiming to find a property over the next month or so.
However, the lack homes available in many areas continues to stymie buyer choice meaning it’s taking longer for many people to find what they are looking for.
Many estate agents and buyers alike are no doubt hoping once the children go back to school, more vendors will list their properties on the market to give stock levels a much-needed boost.
Given ongoing demand levels one would suggest in many areas, for those who are pragmatic about asking price, the market is still very much alive and kicking.
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