Tropical Cyclone Berguitta has been upgraded to a category 2 storm and is forecast to hit Mauritius and La Reunion from Wednesday into Thursday as the equivalent of a Category 3 system.
Despite the storm losing some strength, the cyclone is still dangerous and will result in widespread life-threatening impacts across Mauritius and La Réunion.
The Red Cross has readied response teams to provide relief items and support once the cyclone hits and has said the storm “puts at risk hundreds of lives.”
The Met Office has predicted winds speeds of between 70mph and 80mph when Cyclone Berguitta hits land, however speeds could reach as high as 100mph if the centre of Berguitta passes near or over both islands.
Winds of this speed are strong enough to cause “extreme damage.”
The winds could be capable of causing structural damage to some buildings, downing trees and cause widespread power outages.
If the storm maintains its current path and hits Mauritius directly it will bring the most destructive winds over the island and the country could launch a level 3 alert on Wednesday.
Rainfall could reach 200-400mm (8-15 inches) across the islands which may result in flash flooding and a large rise in sea levels, known as a storm surge.
“Hazardous sea and weather conditions” are expected in the area, the British government has warned.
Advice from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office stated: “Tropical Cyclone Berguitta is forecast to bring hazardous sea and weather conditions to Mauritius from around 17 January 2018.”
The Saffir-Simpson damage scale has estimated the damage Storm Berguitta is likely to bring based on a storm of Berguitta’s strength (category 3) at landfall, according to Reuters.
A storm surge of 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal is predicted, structural damage to small residences and utility buildings and a minor amount of curtainwall failures.
Large trees could be brought down by the high winds battering the islands, mobile homes and poorly constructed signs could be destroyed and flooding along the coast could destroy small structures, while larger structures may be damaged by battering from floating debris.
Flooding could reach as far inland as 8 miles at ground lower than 1.5 metres (5 feet) above mean sea level and there is the potential for further flooding inland due to heavy rain and low-lying residences near the coast may need to be evacuated.
This information is for guidance only and is based on the estimated destruction a category 3 storm could cause at landfall.
Red Cross has put Mauritius and La Réunion on high alert and response teams have been readied to distribute relief items and provide support to communities once the cyclone hits.
The Red Cross said this cyclone “puts at risk hundreds of lives” on the islands.
Andreas Sandin, coordinator for emergency operations for Eastern Africa and Indian Ocean Islands, said: “Our teams in both countries are prepositioning relief items to support communities who may need food, shelter and first aid services.”