Elections in the region in December handed Mr Rajoy, 62, a humiliating defeat with his People’s Party (PP) picking up just 4.2 percent of the vote, with analysts confident that his decision to outlaw an independence referendum and crack down on the separatist movement were a significant motivating factor for voters.
An opinion poll compiled by Metroscopia and published in the Spanish “El Pais” newspaper on Friday suggested that if a general election were held in Spain today, the PP could expect to collect just 23.2 percent of the vote compared with 33 per ent in 2016, meaning it would be overtaken by the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which unlike the PP has its roots in the Catalan region.
Such is Mr Rajoy’s fall from grace that his allies believe he may have just 12 months to turn things around, given that any replacement would need time to settled into the job in advance of a general election in 2020.
Prior to the general election, there are looming municipal, regional and European elections which will likely offer a crucial test of Mr Rajoy’s authority.
Narciso Michavila, chairman of pollster GAD3, told Bloomberg: “Rajoy is very likely aware of the push for renewal everywhere.
“He’s probably open to the idea that he won’t be the candidate at the next election.”
Mr Rajoy courted controversy in October for his handling of the Catalonia crisis, which was sparked by the region’s decision to hold the referendum despite the Spanish Government declaring it to be illegal.
Subsequent widespread public disorder resulted in hundreds being injured, with police firing rubber bullets at protestors.
An arrest warrant was then issued for ousted Catalan President Carles Puigedemont, who fled the country and is now living in exile in Brussels.
A PP press officer refused to confirm or deny that some officials were questioning Rajoy’s position, while another press officer at the prime minister’s office insisted he was focused on seeing out his term.
However, Mr Rajoy himself, told a meeting of the PP’s national committee in Madrid: “As a party we made mistakes, we recognise them and we will have to learn from them.
“The government’s response to this situation has been good for Spain even if it wasn’t good for the People’s Party.”
In another test for Mr Rajoy, the possibility remains that the Catalan Parliament – which met for the first time since the December elections today – would seek to reinstall Mr Puigdemont as President of the region in the wake of the Spanish PM’s vehement opposition.
Mr Rajoy has warned he will use the courts to block any attempt by Mr Puigdemont to take office remotely, arguing that it’s a breach of the parliamentary rules.