The current models which scientists rely on to predict climate change may be far too optimistic – and a ‘worst case scenario’ is more realistic.
There’s a 93% probability that global warming will exceed 4C this century if the world continues as it’s currently going, the scientists warn.
The research suggests that the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to limit temperature rises to 2C, may be unattainable.
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‘Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,’ said study author Dr Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science.
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The researchers analysed current climate models by testing them on the recent past – and found that more pessimistic models seemed to be more accurate.
Dr Caldeira says, ‘It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions.
The researchers concluded that models which predicted bigger rises were the most likely to be accurate – with rises of 0.5C higher than previous estimates.