Express
The division of Europe into six political tribes shows Brexit could happen elsewhere
The groups which shape European political life emerged from a Chatham House survey of 10,000 Europeans’ attitudes to politics and the EU.
Although the debate tends to be represented as ‘pro-EU’ vs. ‘anti-EU’, the study concluded the reality is much more complex.
The biggest group in the study was the Hesitant Europeans, a Eurosceptic group that is proud to be European but unsure about the EU – 36 per cent of those questioned fit in to this category, according to the study.
Ardent EU Rejecters made up 14 per cent of the study, however they are often the loudest group in the bloc as their opinions are so strong, the study claims.
Hesitant Europeans seem to instinctively support the EU, but they have significant concerns about sovereignty and immigration, and many are simply disengaged from politics.
The study said the Hesitant European group will be the most important for determining the future of the bloc.
This is an especially large proportion of EU citizens but can be classed as “swing voters” able to be convinced either way.
Thomas Raines, the co-author of the study, said: “The key challenge for political leaders will be engaging the tribe we’ve dubbed the ‘Hesitant Europeans’ — the largest tribe, and the key swing group for the future.
“While many of its members seem to instinctively support the EU, they have significant concerns about sovereignty and immigration, and many are simply disengaged from politics.”
Express
The size of the six political tribes according to a Chatham House study
The six political tribes the study uncovered:
1. Frustrated Pro-Europeans
Frustrated Pro-Europeans are positive about being European, however they have mixed feelings about the EU.
They want an EU driven by progressive values and are positive about integration, but don’t see their values reflected in the bloc.
2. Contented Europans
Contented Europeans are proud to be European and feel they have benefitted from EU membership.
They believe the EU is democratic and works for them, and feel optimistic about the opportunities it can bring them. They also are more likely to be young, university educated, and to speak more than one language.
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Federalists like Guy Verhofstadt and Jean-Claude Juncker are the smallest group in the EU
3. Federalists
Federalists are the most pro-European group and support the creation of a “United States of Europe”.
This is the oldest, wealthiest European tribe and the most likely to include people who are retired.
4. Austerity Rebels
Austerity Rebels are unsatisfied with politics and the EU, see the EU as undemocratic and want to return more powers to member states.
They often come from states that have been affected by economic crisis like Greece and Italy, and believe richer states should help out the poorer states. They are also more likely to be unemployed and have experienced social hardship.
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There is a high proportion of ‘EU Rejecters’ in the UK
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Protesters demand for Article 50 to be triggered in November 2016
5. Hesitant Europeans
Hesitant Europeans are proud to be European, but are more likely to be apathetic about politics and have doubts in the EU’s ability to make a difference for them.
They tend to want more powers returned to the state, and are worried about immigration.
6. EU Rejecters
EU Rejecters feel they have not personally benefitted from the EU, do not feel proud to be European, and don’t feel solidarity with neighbouring countries. They believe the EU is undemocratic and want more powers for members. Many of them would like immigration to be stopped entirely as they feel it has been bad for their country.
There is a particularly high proportion of EU Rejecters in the UK who feel the bloc is not very transparent, and have a lot of anger towards the EU.