BRINK OF WAR: European allies hatch plan for calm as Trump braced to axe Iran nuclear deal

White House sources say Mr Trump plans to “decertify” the deal this week despite the international community’s assessment that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

And while the president will stop short of scrapping the agreement entirely, he is expected to lay out an aggressive new whole-of-government strategy to counter Iran’s regional aggression and its threats worldwide.

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If Mr Trump carries out his threats, it will be the second time in four months he has distanced Washington from a major multilateral agreement despite intense lobbying by partners and members of his own cabinet.

But in Europe, the Iran move would be seen as far more damaging than the decision in June to pull out of the Paris climate accord.

Elmar Brok, a veteran foreign policy expert in the European Parliament and party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said: “The threat from Iran in terms of nuclear proliferation is more immediate. This is far more dangerous.”

European officials and analysts warn a breakdown of the JCPOA could lead to a Middle East arms race, military conflict between Iran and Israel and an escalation of regional proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

They fear it would also doom any chances for a negotiated deal with North Korea.

Francois Heisbourg, chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “At the end of the day it’s all about the risk of war.” 

Mr Trump’s hardline stance has forced European countries to cobble together a package of measures they hope will keep the Iran nuclear deal on track without US involvement.

The package would include a strong statement backing the deal by European powers, together with efforts to lobby the US Congress and put wider pressure on Iran.

But senior officials in Britain, Germany and France acknowledge without strong US support for the deal it may be only a matter of time before the pact between Tehran and six world powers unravels.

The two-year-old JCPOA agreement, under which Iran agreed to freeze its nuclear programme for 15 years in exchange for sanctions relief, is viewed in Europe as a rare triumph of international diplomacy in the Middle East.

And as tensions over North Korea’s nuclear activities risk boiling over into all-out war, moves by the US to undermine the Iran deal have been met with astonishment in Europe.

European nation have been delivering this message to the White House and Congress in one of the most intense lobbying campaigns in recent memory.

Theresa May has spoken to Mr Trump by phone and European ambassadors have met dozens of US congressmen. 

But the president is still expected to declare that Tehran is not complying with the JCPOA terms and us due to unveil a tough new strategy towards Iran – including designating its Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organisation – that could sink the deal.

European officials are preparing a three-pronged strategy if the US reimposes the sanctions lifted as part of the JCPOA.

First, London, Berlin and then Paris would issue statements reaffirming their commitment to the deal.

Secondly they would redouble efforts to lobby Congress against any rash moves.

And thirdly, they would present measures to pressure Iran over its ballistic missile programme and destabilising policies in the Middle East.

Iranian-born German Green party MP Omid Nouripour said: “The agreement with Iran is like a delicate plant.

“It is a sign of what diplomacy can achieve but it is fragile.  

“The American president doesn’t appear to believe in diplomacy. He seems intent on crushing this plant.”