Goldman Sachs analysts, in an extensive report said they thought turnout for the vote will be lower than in other elections, due to the abstentionist position of the supporters of the No vote and logistical problems with actually carrying out the referendum.
A decisive victory for independence will force negotiations between the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the Catalan President Carles Puigdemont.
Goldman Sachs has called for Catalonia to be given more autonomy, as a way of solving the current crisis in Spain – but also warned it is unlikely to happen.
Analysts at the US investment bank said most Catalans support greater autonomy without the need for independence, and therefore believes that the central government should reverse the decisions taken in 2010, which limited the capacity of action of the region, so Catalonia can abandon its plans of secession.
Goldman Sachs ruled out the referendum will have, in the medium term, a significant impact on Spanish finances for three main reasons.
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The Madrid government has already claimed it will not recognise the results of the referendum as it has already declared the vote to be unconstitutional.
Analysts also point to the lack of reaction of the Ibex 35 – the Spanish Exchange Index – to recent events and the performance of the equity market in recent months, with a worse performance than the eurozone.
The analysts add the referendum will be settled with a majority in favour of independence, because those who do not support independence will probably participate to a lesser extent.
Together with these comments on Catalonia, the bank’s analysis shows a forecast of growth for the Spanish economy of 3.1 per cent for this year.
The report said: ”The pace of growth will slow down, but continue in positive terms,” which it says points to the need to implement more reforms in the long run.
Spain, they conclude, is on the “right path” without risks in the short and medium term to maintain that growth.
Earlier this month credit agency Moody’s said Catalan independence would make Spain poorer, due to the prosperity of the region, but thought Catalonia would remain part of Spain.
A report by Moody’s senior vice-president Sarah Carlson and analyst Marisol Blázquez said: “The region of Catalonia brings in approximately 19% of Spain’s GDP and represents 16% of the total population of the country, and its GDP per capita is above the national average, so its exit would weaken Spain’s economic strength and, as such, would have negative implications for its credit rating.”
However, they say that, according to their predictions, “Catalonia will continue being part of Spain”, since there are many obstacles to its independence being formalised.
Among the difficulties the agency sees are “the firm and constant opposition” of the Spanish government, the existence of a series of tools that the Spanish state has to confront the independence process and the surveys, which suggest “popular support is less than a majority”.