North Korea ‘WILL fire missile at Guam’ (but is too scared to target USA) says expert

Dr Emily Landau, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said she finally thinks the despot leader is realising there will be serious consequences – potentially nuclear ones – for continually threatening the United States.

Kim threatened to fire missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam and claimed the hermit kingdom had developed weapons which could reach the US mainland.

US President Donald Trump rapidly responded saying threats like that would be met with “fire and fury”.

Dr Landau told Express.co.uk: “I think Kim might fire towards Guam and then we’ll have to see what the response will be.

“I do think he will be deterred from striking the mainland because I think he’s getting the message that he can’t go down that path without a response, with all the devastating consequences of that – this is what deterrence is about.” 

She said Guam is a “grey area” for the US and she does not believe it is covered by the fire and fury threat, despite being a US territory.

Addressing the inflamed rhetoric since Mr Trump became president, she said: “You need to convince your enemy you are dead serious and even though there are consequences, which are more if your adversary is threatening you with that destruction, then you have to impress upon the enemy you will respond.

“You have to gain some deterrence – states have been working on this for thousands of years.”

But, she added: “If people are interpreting fire and fury to be a nuclear threat, that will only come in the wake of a nuclear threat on the US mainland. 

“Or pre-emption when it’s clear North Korea is about to engage in a nuclear scenario.”

She said the change in rhetoric is the US slowly understanding “all the mistakes” made during 25 years of diplomacy and that diplomacy is the reason they are now facing a nuclear North Korea which is unlikely to change.

However, Dr Landau believes the communist state and the rest of the world are finally trying to draw up new deterrence rules and are testing where each others’ red lines are.

The Iran and North Korea nuclear expert, added: “Yes, the situation is not stable, it’s all due to North Korea’s provocation – they’re working on nuclear capabilities and issuing threats.

“The situation is not good, it’s unstable but I think what we’re seeing is attempts to create some deterrent rules of the game.

“Both sides are issuing these messages so each side understands the red line.

“Any strike on the US mainland will be responded to with a very harsh response.

“The States is slowly understanding all the mistakes which were made in 25 years of diplomacy they are now facing a nuclear North Korea and that’s not likely to change.

“They can talk about going back to negotiations and for North Korea to be pressurised to denuclearise. 

“But they have now realised the determined proliferator can become a nuclear state.

“And you have to live with that reality. 

“Both sides are in this process of clarifying those understandings and red lines, obviously through very threatening rhetoric which doesn’t sound good and sounds like it’s escalating at times, but we need a broader view of it and to not just look at each individual escalation.”