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Trump’s Shift on Iran: A New Middle East Strategy?
During his election campaign, Donald Trump hinted at forging a novel rapport with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli premier accustomed to influencing the White House. However, barely five months into his term, Trump seems to be following a familiar pattern, initiating what is considered the most significant assault on Iran in decades. This development raises questions about the evolving U.S. foreign policy and its implications for regional stability.
From Restraint to Action: The Changing Dynamics
Initial indications suggested the Trump administration might curb Netanyahu’s military aspirations. Yet, it now seems the Israeli leader has guided the United States into directly attacking Iranian uranium processing locations after a series of military actions that Washington couldn’t dissuade Israel from undertaking. The U.S. is now bracing for a response that could trigger a large-scale conflict. This shift highlights the complex interplay between U.S. interests and Israeli strategies in the Middle East.
Early Encounters: Setting the Stage
Prior to Trump’s inauguration, his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Israel demanding a meeting with Netanyahu on Shabbat to pressure him into a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza.
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At the time, senior officials attributed this to the “Trump factor,” alluding to the U.S. president’s unpredictable nature and deal-making skills, potentially offering a crucial advantage in negotiating with the assertive Israeli PM.
While previous administrations had been swayed by Netanyahu to back his military endeavors in the area, some critics of Israel initially praised Trump’s ability to withstand Netanyahu’s influence.
The Turning Point: U.S. Strikes in Iran
The events on Saturday, however, marked a significant shift. When U.S. B-2 bombers targeted sites in Iran for the first time since Israel’s attacks began the previous week, it became apparent that Trump’s perspective had evolved. Members of his close circle also transitioned from an isolationist “MAGA” foreign policy to a more aggressive stance.
Trump’s vocal opposition to war and his campaign assurances against involving the U.S. in further overseas conflicts diminished within 200 days of assuming office.
Public Image vs. Reality: Trump and Netanyahu
In public appearances, Trump sought to dispel rumors of a strained relationship with Netanyahu. He aimed to demonstrate that U.S. policy was aligned with Israel, dismissing claims that Israel had surprised the U.S. with its aggressive bombing campaign against Iran.
“I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu,” Trump stated. “We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”
This contrasts sharply with the initial U.S. reaction to Israeli airstrikes in Iran, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the strikes “unilateral,” stating the U.S. was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.”
A Week’s Transformation: Endorsement and Escalation Concerns
The U.S. now seems to have fully embraced the Israeli attacks and joined the offensive, possibly paving the way for a series of escalations that could trigger a new conflict in the Middle East. This shift raises concerns about the potential for a broader regional war and the long-term implications for U.S. foreign policy.
The Future Outlook: Containing the Conflict?
Trump has asserted, both publicly and privately, that the U.S. strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan enrichment facilities were isolated incidents that could be contained. U.S. forces in the Middle East have been alerted to the possibility of Iranian retaliatory actions. Trump has cautioned Tehran that the U.S. is prepared to conduct further strikes if targeted directly.
However, members of his own administration, including Vice-President JD Vance, have warned of the possibility that a limited strike could escalate into a longer-term engagement with Iran if Tehran responds.
Currently, Trump continues to attempt a balancing act, launching attacks while implying that he can prevent an escalation leading to a prolonged war. This strategy aims to project strength while mitigating the risk of a broader conflict.
Netanyahu’s Response: A Bold Decision?
Yet, the key U.S. ally in the Middle East appears emboldened by Trump’s raid.
“Congratulations, President Trump, your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history,” Netanyahu stated in a recorded message.