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Limited Options for Iran Amidst Escalating Tensions
In the wake of heightened tensions, Iran faces a complex landscape of limited and risky options after its initial threats of retaliation failed to deter Donald Trump from potentially joining Israel’s bombing campaign. Although Iranian retaliation was promised, the country’s capacity to respond has been degraded by recent strikes targeting its long-range missile capabilities.
Iran’s Remaining Arsenal and US Preparations
- Despite the setbacks, Iran maintains a considerable arsenal of shorter-range missiles and drones.
- The United States has taken significant protective measures, including dispersing its naval assets and enhancing its air defenses to present a more formidable target.
- Trump issued warnings regarding broader US involvement should Iran retaliate and suggested targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Weakened Regional Alliances: “Axis of Resistance”
Iran’s long-cultivated network of regional militias, its “axis of resistance,” has also been diminished. Key points include:
- Hezbollah’s missile capabilities suffered significant damage from Israeli air strikes last year.
- Israeli forces have continued operations near Lebanon, reportedly striking missile depots in Beirut.
Threats from Iraqi Shia Militia and Houthi Warnings
Regional allies of Iran have also issued threats. Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia militia supported by Tehran, has vowed to target “US interests” in the Middle East following Washington’s involvement in supporting Israel.
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Kata’ib Hezbollah Commander’s Statement
Abu Ali al-Askari, a commander within Kata’ib Hezbollah, has stated that US bases in the region could become “duck-hunting grounds.” The US maintains a military presence across numerous sites in the Middle East including eight permanent facilities.
Houthi Forces and Red Sea Threats
The Houthi forces in Yemen, another Iranian ally, previously agreed to a ceasefire with the US in May; however, they have cautioned that they would view any US participation in attacks on Iran as a breach of the truce and would target US ships within the Red Sea.
Potential US Response to Militia Involvement
The potential involvement of these militias could trigger a forceful response from the United States, which has been preparing for such a contingency.
Economic Warfare: Strait of Hormuz
A further option for Iran includes targeting shipping and potentially using mines, sinking ships, or credibly threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil and gas transportation. The Strait of Hormuz sees approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply (20 million barrels) pass through it each day.
Economic Implications of Closing the Strait
Hardline voices inside Iranian politics have advocated for this action, possibly aimed at triggering an oil price spike, leading to immediate inflationary pressures in the US ahead of congressional elections. However, such an action carries significant risk of economic self-harm, given that Iranian oil also relies on this route. It could also provoke intervention from Gulf Arab states to safeguard their own interests.
Delayed Retaliation: A Strategic Pause?
To avoid escalating the conflict or inviting a comprehensive US bombing campaign, Tehran might opt for delayed retaliation, as it has done in response to past attacks. An Iranian official hinted at the possibility of extended consequences, suggesting that recent decisions could “have everlasting consequences”.