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Potential Impact of Bombing Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Facility
Concerns have risen about the potential repercussions if the United States were to deploy its most powerful conventional weapon against Iran’s Fordo nuclear enrichment site. If President Donald Trump ordered an attack on Fordo nuclear facility, a deeply buried and heavily fortified site, experts suggest the immense explosive force could result in casualties among personnel present, but would be unlikely to cause a nuclear explosion or widespread radiological contamination.
Assessing the Risks: A Conventional Strike on Fordo
Located south of Tehran, the Fordo plant is used for enriching uranium. While the uranium and its chemical byproducts can be hazardous upon contact or ingestion without protective measures, analysts emphasize they would not result in a large-scale blast or regional contamination. This is primarily because Fordo does not house nuclear reactors or warheads, a fact corroborated by international monitoring agencies and specialists.
Expert Opinions on the Potential Fallout
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commanding officer of the British military’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment, offered a stark but specific assessment. “If you’re down there and it gets bombed, you’re stuffed,” he stated. He clarified that the danger stems from the sheer power of the weapon involved.
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De Bretton-Gordon was referring to the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), the U.S.’s largest conventional bomb, weighing approximately 5,500 pounds. It is one of the few conventional weapons capable of effectively targeting a deeply buried site like Fordo.
“But if anyone thinks this would be like Chernobyl — absolutely not,” de Bretton-Gordon said. “Blowing up uranium will not create a nuclear explosion; that is a very complex piece of science, which is why it’s so bloody difficult to make nuclear bombs.”
Limited Risk of Radiation Leak
Adding to this assessment, Mark Nelson, founder and managing director of Radiant Energy Group, a research consultancy, indicated a minimal likelihood of a substantial radiation leak or broader environmental consequences.
Nelson explained, “The nuclear substances at Fordo are only very weakly radioactive.” He contrasted this with the potential for a wider catastrophe involving “fission products” that could arise from an attack on a nuclear plant or missile site. He explained that is what uranium breaks down into during a nuclear reaction.
The Geopolitical Context: Scrutiny on Fordo Intensifies
Increased attention is being paid to Fordo as discussions intensify regarding potential strategies toward Iran, including the possibility of joining Israel’s operations.
Fordo’s Enrichment Activities and International Concerns
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has been refining uranium to 60% at Fordo. This enrichment level significantly exceeds the 3-5% needed for nuclear power generation and approaches the 90% threshold required for weaponization.
- Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: Prior to 2018, Iran adhered to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement offering sanctions relief in exchange for limitations on its nuclear program.
- Agreement Details: The agreement, finalized in 2015, involved the U.S., Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. Many independent observers suggest it was successfully limiting Iran’s nuclear program.
- Withdrawal and Renewed Tensions: The agreement effectively dissolved when President Trump withdrew from the pact three years later.
Conflicting Views on Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense debate. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Iran was rapidly progressing toward developing a nuclear weapon, a claim the International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to substantiate. The watchdog remains concerned about Fordo, where uranium is processed.
The Fordo Facility: Design and Purpose
Iran states that Fordo was designed to house 3,000 centrifuges. Former President Obama, in 2009, stated that the “size and configuration” of this facility is “inconsistent with a peaceful program.”
Potential Containment Strategies Post-Strike
Experts, including de Bretton-Gordon, suggest the U.S.’s MOP bomb could potentially destroy and encase the facility, creating a containment structure similar to the one built around Chernobyl.
Comparison to Chernobyl Sarcophagus
While Chernobyl’s protective enclosure is 40 feet thick, de Bretton-Gordon envisions a “sarcophagus 200-feet thick” at Fordo.
Remaining Risks and Potential Contamination
Even with containment measures, the risk of contamination is not zero.
- Hydrofluoric Acid Hazard: Released uranium gas could decompose into hydrofluoric acid, a highly corrosive substance that can cause severe burns and potentially fatal health problems.
- Water Contamination Risk: Radioactive materials could potentially seep into water sources within the mountain. However, experts suggest radioactive levels would likely be low and detectable rather than harmful.
Overall Risk Assessment
Ultimately, experts like Nelson emphasizes that the gravest threat remains the force of the MOP bomb itself.
“The danger at the seaside of saltwater ingestion is real — even a few liters could kill you,” he analogized. “This danger, however, is relatively small compared to drowning.”