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Russia’s Stake in the Middle East Crisis Amidst Operation Rising Lion
As Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials have described the current escalation in the Middle East as “alarming” and “dangerous,” with potential ramifications for Russia’s geopolitical strategy. However, Russian media outlets initially highlighted possible advantages for Moscow, including a surge in global oil prices, a shift in international focus away from the conflict in Ukraine, and an opportunity for Russia to position itself as a mediator and peacemaker.
Initial Perceived Benefits for Russia
Early analyses in Russian media suggested several potential benefits for Moscow:
- Increased Oil Revenue: A rise in global oil prices was predicted to augment Russia’s financial resources.
- Distraction from Ukraine: The conflict was seen as diverting global attention from Russia’s involvement in Ukraine.
- Mediation Opportunity: If the Kremlin’s offer to mediate were accepted, Russia could portray itself as a crucial player in the Middle East, despite its ongoing actions in Ukraine.
Rising Concerns for Moscow
As Israel’s military operation progresses, the recognition is growing that the Middle East Crisis could pose significant risks for Russia.
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Russian political analyst Andrei Kortunov noted in Kommersant that the escalation presents “serious risks and potential costs for Moscow.” He emphasized Russia’s inability to prevent Israeli action against a nation with which it recently forged a strategic partnership.
Kortunov added, “Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it’s not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.”
The Limits of the Russia-Iran Partnership
The strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, signed by Vladimir Putin and President Masoud Pezeshkian, is not a formal military alliance. It does not legally obligate Moscow to defend Tehran, though Moscow initially promoted the agreement as significant.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the agreement emphasized “the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence.”
Loss of Allies and Strategic Shifts
In recent months, Moscow has witnessed shifts in its alliances within the Middle East. The prospect of further regional instability and the potential loss of additional strategic partners is likely a major concern for Moscow.
Geopolitical Shifts and Russia’s Response
Moskovsky Komsomolets commented on the Middle East developments, noting that “massive changes are taking place in real time which will affect life in our country, either directly or indirectly.”
St. Petersburg International Economic Forum
Vladimir Putin is scheduled to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. While it once held the moniker “Russia’s Davos,” the event’s significance has diminished, especially since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulted in the absence of many Western executives.
Despite this, organizers assert that representatives from over 140 countries and territories will participate, with Russian authorities aiming to demonstrate the failure of efforts to isolate Russia.
Geopolitical Considerations at the Forum
Although primarily an economic event, the forum is expected to address geopolitical issues. Observers will be closely monitoring any statements made by the Kremlin leader regarding the Middle East Conflict and the war in Ukraine.