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Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” Targets Iran: A Deep Dive Into the Escalating Tensions
Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion,” as it designates its offensive in Iran, marks an unprecedented escalation in regional tensions. This operation, far exceeding previous engagements including the missile and drone exchanges of last year, represents the most substantial assault on Iranian territory since the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. The operation aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program and has implications for the entire Middle East region.
Strategic Strikes and Covert Operations
In the pre-dawn hours, the Israeli Air Force reportedly targeted Iranian sites, not only those associated with the country’s nuclear initiatives but also its air defense systems and ballistic missile emplacements. This strategic move aimed to degrade Iran’s capacity for retaliation.
Simultaneously, a network of operatives reportedly linked to Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, played a crucial role on the ground, allegedly pinpointing the locations of key figures within the Iranian military and nuclear science communities.
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Casualties and Penetration of Security
Reports indicate that the casualties included high-ranking officials such as the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the guardians of the Islamic Revolution, as well as chiefs of the mainstream armed forces and the IRGC air force. Iran has stated that several of its scientists were also among those killed.
This operation highlights Mossad’s apparent ability to penetrate Iran’s security apparatus, suggesting that no individual is entirely secure.
Targets and Impact
- Primary targets included the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz.
- Bases belonging to the IRGC were also targeted.
- Reports suggest Mossad launched drones from within Iran.
The attack has left Iran in a state of shock, and further actions may be anticipated. While Israel might possess a more extensive list of targets, some are potentially beyond reach due to their fortified underground locations.
Motivations Behind Israel’s Actions
Several factors are thought to have influenced Israel’s decision to launch this operation now.
Concerns Over Nuclear Ambitions
Israel, along with several Western nations, suspects Iran of covertly pursuing “breakout capability,” the critical stage in developing a viable nuclear weapon.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes, with assistance from Russia.
Previous Attempts to Hinder Progress
For over a decade, Israel has attempted to impede Iran’s nuclear progress, with alleged assassinations of Iranian scientists and the 2020 killing of Brig-Gen Fakhrizadeh. The Stuxnet virus, a cyber weapon, previously disrupted Iran’s centrifuges.
International Scrutiny and the Uranium Stockpile
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently found Iran in breach of its non-proliferation duties, raising the prospect of referral to the UN Security Council.
Concerns are largely driven by Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), refined up to 60%, exceeding requirements for civil nuclear power and approaching levels necessary for weapon development.
The 2015 Nuclear Deal
In 2015, an agreement was reached to restrain Iran’s nuclear program, but the U.S. withdrew from the deal under the Trump administration, after which Iran ceased adhering to its stipulations.
Existential Threat Perception
Israel regards a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, citing statements from Iranian officials calling for Israel’s obliteration. Neighboring countries also harbor anxieties about the Iranian government.
Regional Implications
- Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are uneasy about the escalating conflict.
- Iran’s regional allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza have been weakened.
- Israel reportedly feared Iran would move key uranium enrichment equipment deep underground.
Possible Future Scenarios
Israel’s Objectives
Israel’s primary goal is to significantly delay or completely halt Iran’s nuclear program. Additionally, some within Israel hope the operation might weaken Iran’s leadership to the point of collapse.
Diplomatic Efforts and Mistrust
Despite ongoing US-Iran negotiations, Israel remains skeptical, believing Iran is stalling for time. Israel views this as a critical opportunity to neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Risk of Escalation
There is a risk the US could be drawn into another Middle Eastern conflict if Tehran retaliates against US assets in the region.
Although Iran’s Supreme Leader has promised retaliation, Iran’s current weakened state limits its options.
The Specter of a Nuclear Arms Race
Operation Rising Lion raises the risk of triggering a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Deterrence Argument
Some within Iran’s security establishment may now argue that acquiring nuclear weapons offers the best deterrent.
Lessons from Libya and North Korea
The fates of Libya and North Korea provide contrasting lessons. Libya abandoned its WMD program and its leader was overthrown, while North Korea’s nuclear arsenal deters potential attackers.
Escalation Risk
If the Iranian regime survives this, it may accelerate its pursuit of nuclear weapons and testing, potentially leading to a regional nuclear arms race involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.