Hurricane forecasters will go without a key tool this season

Importance Score: 72 / 100 🔴

For the past four years, a fleet of drone vessels has been intentionally navigating into the core of hurricanes to amass data on the storm’s intensity, specifically wind velocities, wave amplitudes, and the crucial exchange of thermal energy and humidity between the ocean’s layer and the immediate atmospheric boundary. These insights are invaluable in hurricane forecasting and understanding storm behavior.

Saildrone Absence: Impact on Hurricane Forecasting

These compact vessels, engineered by Saildrone, a California-based entity, also capture gripping visuals from the ocean’s surface amid the most intense natural phenomena. These videos, invaluable for scientific exploration, have also garnered considerable attention online, providing the public with a glimpse into the heart of these potent meteorological events.

Notably, federal scientists leveraged Saildrone vessels to refine the precision of forecasts and alerts. However, these assets will not be incorporated into the forecasters’ toolkit this year. As Keeley Belva, a spokesperson for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), conveyed to CNN, the enterprise “was unable to bid” on a contract for the current season.

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The basis for this situation stems from the timing of NOAA’s solicitation for the season’s contract, according to a NOAA employee who requested anonymity.

The delayed release of NOAA’s request for proposals impeded Saildrone’s ability to both submit a bid and strategically pre-position its fleet at various launch sites along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in advance of the hurricane season.

This incident is among numerous instances where storm readiness and response efforts have faced complications as the season commences, raising apprehensions about potential reductions in the accuracy of hurricane projections compared to recent years.

The news regarding Saildrone coincided with staff reductions at NOAA through terminations, early retirements, and additional incentives aimed at agency downsizing.

Morale has experienced a decline, particularly following the proposal from the administration to dissolve the agency branch responsible for oceanic and atmospheric research entirely, potentially eliminating hurricane research operations upon enactment. Even absent this measure, alternative strategies may be employed to enforce substantial reductions.

Belva did not furnish specific details when asked about the precise issuance date for the proposal request or the rationale behind the delay, particularly given the hurricane season’s commencement on June 1. She mentioned “ongoing” discussions with Saildrone regarding potential future deployments with NOAA.

“NOAA is continuing to investigate the utilization of unmanned systems to fulfill the agency’s data requirements within inaccessible regions of tropical cyclones during the 2025 season,” Belva added. “The agency is preparing for the deployment of unmanned surface vehicles with industry partners for the 2026 season.”

This season, NOAA will still deploy new technologies to enhance understanding of hurricane mechanics and individual storm intensity, including ultra-high-altitude weather balloons, according to Joe Cione, the leading meteorologist for emerging technologies at the agency’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

However, these new tools are aerial resources rather than ocean-based, unlike the Saildrones that offer vital ocean data.

The Void Left by Saildrone’s Absence

With Saildrones absent this hurricane season, meteorologists will be without constant, direct observations of hurricanes’ most substantial winds near the ocean’s surface and the temperatures of the warm waters that fuel the storms. This absence impacts the accuracy of hurricane predictions.

The agency will continue employing dropsondes—sensor packages capable of measuring intense winds as they descend through the storm after release from hurricane hunter aircraft.

According to NOAA oceanographer Gregory Foltz, these only provide a snapshot in time at a specific storm location, whereas Saildrones can persist for extended periods, offering insights from the atmosphere’s lowest levels.

Foltz mentioned that Saildrone observations were slated for direct integration into forecast models this year through faster methods to improve accuracy. Furthermore, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center would have leveraged Saildrone data to enhance the determination of a storm’s structure and strength when issuing advisories.

The boats also provided an unexpected advantage: Their immersive videos aided in alerting individuals in harm’s way to a storm’s intensity. Foltz suggested that these videos might influence evacuation decisions by illustrating the severity of conditions.

Alternative Technologies for Hurricane Monitoring

NOAA’s aerial technology this season is expected to augment the data available to forecasters. Over the next three weeks, NOAA’s hurricane hunters will be performing clear-air tests of some of these advanced platforms.

Cione, whose focus is on identifying promising technologies for weather research and forecasting at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, highlighted airborne drones like the Black Swift SØ drone.

This drone weighs just three pounds and can be launched into storms from the belly of a NOAA WP-3 hurricane hunter aircraft.

Benefits of Airborne Drones

  • Extended low-altitude flight within a storm.
  • Recording of winds, temperatures, and other parameters in the under-sampled lowest 1,500 feet of a hurricane.
  • Enhanced situational awareness through real-time data feedback.

Streamsondes: Gathering Detailed Data

Researchers will also utilize compact, lightweight instrument packets called “Streamsondes,” which can be ejected from aircraft. These descend more gradually than standard dropsondes, enabling more comprehensive data capture.

This year, Cione indicates that researchers may collaborate to “swarm” Streamsondes, deploying up to 50 simultaneously into an area of interest within a storm to precisely determine a hurricane’s winds and air pressure.

These aerial platforms cannot furnish the vivid video feeds previously supplied by Saildrones, nor can they dependably measure winds and sea surface temperatures for sustained periods.

Ultimately, Foltz emphasizes that researchers aim to acquire concurrent aerial and ocean-based observations for a more exhaustive depiction of the inner mechanisms of severe storms. This encompasses employing uncrewed underwater drones to gather data beneath storms.

The Future of Hurricane Research

“We need everything in the atmosphere and the ocean working together,” Foltz stated. “That’s a major objective of ours.”

Although this will not be achieved this year, it may be closer to realization in 2026, assuming NOAA’s research division still exists next year.

“One only appreciates the significance of something once it’s been removed,” Foltz remarked regarding the Saildrones’ contributions.


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