Importance Score: 75 / 100 🔴
Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasted by NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season, anticipating elevated storm activity compared to an average year. Residents and emergency responders need to remain prepared as experts predict the likelihood of increased storms throughout the 2025 season.
Predictions for the 2025 Hurricane Season
According to Ken Graham, meteorologist and director of the National Weather Service, “We’re really looking at an above normal season. We’re calling for 13 to 19 named storms.” These projections highlight a significant potential for increased hurricane development.
Storm Categories and Intensities
- Named Storms: Storms receive names once wind speeds reach 39 mph or greater.
- Hurricanes: Forecasters anticipate 6 to 10 of the named storms will intensify into hurricanes, boasting wind speeds exceeding 74 mph.
- Major Hurricanes: NOAA anticipates 3 to 5 major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher.
Preparing for Potential Landfall
While forecasts don’t specify where hurricanes will make landfall or the number expected to impact U.S. coastlines, weather experts advocate for proactive readiness.
Actionable Steps for Preparedness
Graham emphasized the importance of preparation: “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together. We’ve got to be ready. No lines for supplies today. No lines for gas, no lines for plywood, no lines for water.”
Factors Driving the Active Forecast
Graham attributed the above-average forecast partly to elevated ocean temperatures, a trend linked to climate change.
Impact of Warmer Ocean Temperatures
“The warmer ocean temperatures are really consistent with us being in a more active season,” Graham stated at a news conference. The warmer temperatures encourage the formation and strengthening of storms.
West African Monsoon Influence
Forecasters also anticipate heightened activity from the West African Monsoon, a phenomenon spawning storms off the African coast and directing them across the Atlantic towards the U.S.
Impact of Staffing Shortages
The hurricane forecast surfaces amid staffing shortages within many National Weather Service offices, stemming from previous personnel reductions and voluntary retirement programs.
Staffing Challenges at the National Weather Service
Approximately 600 staffers departed the National Weather Service early in 2025, creating staffing gaps. Despite this, agency leadership asserted the National Hurricane Center possesses the necessary resources.
Agency Response to Staffing Concerns
“We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go. And we are really making this a top priority for this administration,” affirmed Laura Grimm, the acting administrator of NOAA.
Local Forecasting Office Vulnerabilities
The nation’s 122 local forecasting offices face significant vacancies. These offices are critical for projecting localized impacts following hurricane landfall, including flood inundation and precipitation levels.
“I’m going to make sure that our offices, when there’s a hurricane threat, that’s going to have the resources that they need to make sure every warning goes out,” Graham said, adding that he was working on solutions to “make sure that we continue to have the staffing that we need long term.”
Key Dates for Hurricane Season
The hurricane season begins June 1 and concludes Nov. 30, with peak activity typically occurring in late summer and early autumn.
Forecast Consistency Across Agencies
NOAA’s projections align with public forecasts from external research groups at universities, government entities, and private sector companies.
Comparison with External Forecasts
On average, external research groups predicted eight Atlantic hurricanes for 2025, according to a website managed by Colorado State University and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.
Recalling the 2024 Hurricane Season
Last year, NOAA predicted its highest-ever hurricane season, which manifested in 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. coastline. Hurricane Helene made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast, then tracked northward with intense rainfall, causing destructive inland flooding in North Carolina, among other states. Helene killed more than 150 people.
Rapid Intensification and Global Warming
Both storms underwent rapid intensification, a phenomenon in which hurricane winds ramp up suddenly as the storm nears shore.
Global warming makes that process more likely. High sea surface temperatures, like those observed over the past several years, can fuel that rapid intensification. A 2023 study found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean were about 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990.