Importance Score: 75 / 100 🔴
Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2025
WASHINGTON — Forecasters are predicting another active Atlantic hurricane season due to higher than normal ocean temperatures. While expectations point towards a vigorous season, experts suggest it is unlikely to reach the intensity of 2024, which ranked as the third-costliest on record with disruptive storms such as Beryl, Helene, and Milton.
NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday. The season, which spans from June 1 to the end of November, has a 60% chance of being above normal, a 30% chance of being near normal, and only a 10% chance of being below average.
Specific Forecast Details
The forecast anticipates:
- 13 to 19 named storms
- 6 to 10 hurricanes
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph (177 kph)
A typical season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Key Factors Driving the Forecast
According to National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, while ocean temperatures aren’t as extreme as last year’s record heat, they are still high enough to significantly influence the forecast. “Everything is in place for an above average season,” Graham stated.
Preparedness and Readiness
Despite previous job reductions at NOAA, Graham assured that the agency’s capabilities are at their peak, especially during the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm confirmed that the hurricane center is fully staffed and prepared, emphasizing its importance for the administration.
Historical Context and Trends
Since 1995, NOAA data indicates that 21 out of 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal, with almost half classified as “hyperactive.” Season classifications are based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, considering the number, strength, and duration of storms. In the past decade, only 2015 was below normal, and 2022 was near normal.
Recap of the 2024 Hurricane Season
The 2024 season began with a record early Category 5 hurricane, Beryl, followed by a lull. However, six additional storms, including Helene and Milton, quickly formed. Ultimately, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, 2024 was deemed hyperactive, marking the third such season in the last 10 years.
The Influence of Climate Change
Kristen Corbosiero, a tropical meteorology professor at the University at Albany, noted that “With a warming climate, forecasting above the long-term mean is always a safe bet.” Experts indicate that human-caused climate change generally intensifies storms, making them wetter and slower, leading to increased rainfall.
The Role of Ocean Temperatures
“The main fuel source for hurricanes is warm ocean waters,” Corbosiero explained. “Warmer ocean water and the warmer atmosphere above it can hold more moisture, providing more fuel for storms.”
Multiple Contributing Factors
Corbosiero outlined three primary factors: water temperature, the El Nino/La Nina cycle, and thunderstorm “seeds” originating from Africa. While warmer waters suggest a busy season and the El Nino cycle is neutral, it remains too early to determine the impact of African thunderstorms.
Rapid Intensification
Meteorologists have observed that hurricanes are intensifying from minimal strength to high intensity more rapidly due to climate change, providing less warning. Every Category 5 hurricane impacting the United States had been a tropical storm or weaker just three days prior, according to Graham.
Other Forecasts and Perspectives
Numerous groups, including private, public, and academic institutions, have also released their forecasts, generally anticipating an active but not hyperactive year, with an average of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
Colorado State’s Prediction
Phil Klotzbach, coordinator of Colorado State’s forecast program, projects slightly higher numbers: 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four majors, basing his forecast on warm waters and historical patterns. Despite this, he doesn’t expect the season to mirror the extremes of 2024.
Individual Storm Impact
Corbosiero cautioned that even a quiet year can be devastating, referencing the extremely quiet 1992 season, which was punctuated by the destructive Hurricane Andrew. “We don’t need a hyperactive season to have devastation in the U.S. or the Caribbean or anywhere,” Corbosiero warned.