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The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season in 2025 is projected to be more active than normal, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has cautioned. This warning comes as cuts to American research raise concerns about the nation’s capacity to monitor and prepare for these frequently devastating storms. Forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season, emphasizing the need for robust monitoring and preparedness efforts.
Above-Average Hurricane Activity Forecast
NOAA anticipates between six and ten hurricanes in the Atlantic region from June to November, surpassing the typical average of seven. The forecast is attributed to elevated sea temperatures – exacerbated by climate change – and generally conducive atmospheric conditions.
Scientists Voice Concerns
Several scientists have expressed concerns to the BBC that extensive layoffs of government researchers by President Donald Trump’s administration could jeopardize efforts to observe hurricanes and anticipate their potential paths.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The current 2025 Atlantic season outlook encompasses the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico (referred to as the Gulf of America by the Trump administration).
- NOAA projects a total of 13 to 19 named tropical storms.
- Of these, six to ten may intensify into hurricanes.
- Three to five could become major hurricanes, reaching Category 3 or higher (111 mph or 178 km/h).
While the projected numbers are lower than the previous year’s highly active season, which recorded 18 tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes with five classified as major, they still exceed the long-term average. The historical average includes 14 named tropical storms per year, with seven typically becoming hurricanes and three reaching major status.
Climate Change Impact
Although climate change is not necessarily expected to increase the global number of these storms, a warming planet is believed to raise the probability of them achieving higher wind speeds, producing more intense rainfall, and increasing the risk of coastal inundation.
Factors Driving the Forecast
The above-average forecast this year is driven by two key factors:
- Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures: Sea surface temperatures are above average across much of the tropical Atlantic, though not as extreme as last year. Warmer waters serve as a fuel source for hurricane development as they move westward across the Atlantic.
- Absence of El Niño: The natural weather pattern known as El Niño, which hinders Atlantic hurricane formation, is not anticipated this year, according to NOAA. Neutral or weak La Niña conditions, which favor Atlantic hurricanes, are considered more probable.
Challenges in Prediction
Other conditions must be favorable for hurricanes to form, and these are difficult to predict months in advance. Localized air movements and even the amount of atmospheric dust can significantly influence storm development. “We can’t really predict all that stuff this far out,” stated Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, which has also forecasted an above-average season.
Concerns Over Staffing Cuts
The NOAA forecast has raised concerns among scientists not only due to the meteorological outlook but also because of staffing reductions.
Impact of Layoffs
Since the beginning of President Trump’s second term, NOAA has experienced significant staff reductions, with the intent of reducing government spending and taxpayer costs. This has left the National Weather Service – NOAA’s weather forecasting and hazard-warning division – severely understaffed as the hurricane season approaches, several scientists told the BBC.
- “I know that the people remaining are trying their absolute hardest to provide accurate forecasts, but when you’re reduced to such few staff, it’s going to lead to burnout,” observed Zack Labe, a climate scientist formerly employed by NOAA.
- The Houston office, serving an area highly vulnerable to hurricanes, lacks its top three management positions.
Operational Struggles
Other offices are struggling to maintain 24/7 operations, and experts with contacts at NOAA described difficulties in securing basic maintenance, ranging from computer systems to restroom facilities.
Vacancy Crisis
US media outlets have reported that the National Weather Service is seeking to fill over 150 key vacancies by reassigning staff from other NOAA positions, due to a hiring freeze. The BBC has not independently verified these reports and has contacted NOAA and the White House for comment, but has not received a response.
“It’s a huge problem, and it is a growing problem, and it is a problem that will likely, unless it is immediately resolved, become life threatening during severe weather events,” warned Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. He expressed concern that the current cuts are merely “the tip of the iceberg.”
Threats to Monitoring Capabilities
Staffing cuts could also endanger “hurricane hunter” flights, which involve aircraft entering the storms as they approach land to gather data crucial for landfall preparations. Additionally, scientists have cited reductions in atmospheric observations, such as weather balloon launches, with the Trump administration reportedly attempting to eliminate programs perceived as related to “climate.”
Potential Impact on Forecast Accuracy
While hurricane forecasts have generally improved over time, the staffing cuts pose a risk to this progress.
“Less data means a worse forecast,” cautioned Matt Lanza, a Houston-based meteorologist. “I’m especially concerned about hurricane season because a lot of the steering mechanisms that direct hurricanes are governed by what’s happening thousands of feet up,” he added. “And if we’re not collecting data in important places, then I think that risks your hurricane forecast suffering.”
The precise impact of these cuts may not be immediately apparent this year, contingent upon the specific locations and timing of hurricane landfalls. However, there are broader implications for weather forecasting worldwide, which the Trump administration contends has become excessively reliant on the US.
“You need good information on the state of the atmosphere and the oceans from the whole world to make weather forecasts for any given location on Earth,” emphasized Dr. Swain. “The impacts [of cuts to NOAA] are most concentrated in the United States, but will eventually cascade beyond the US should they continue at their current level or further expand.”
During a press conference, NOAA acting administrator Laura Grimm affirmed that NOAA possesses the most qualified scientists, continues to advance forecasting capabilities, and remains dedicated to public protection.