Why the India-Pakistan cease-fire could end up burning Washington

India and Pakistan Ceasefire: A Fragile Truce

A fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan has endured for almost a week. Amidst this tense calm, Pakistan has expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for, as they claim, mediating a resolution after critical military installations were devastated by Indian missile strikes. This recent conflict brought two nuclear-armed nations perilously close to full-scale war.

India, viewed by successive US presidents as a vital democratic partner against China, asserts that it ceased hostilities following direct appeals from Pakistan.

Regardless of the circumstances, the underlying issues that precipitated this dangerous conflict between two nuclear powers remain unresolved, posing a continuing threat to regional stability.

The Kashmir Attack and Escalating Tensions

The catalyst for this outbreak was the brutal slaying of tourists in the Pahalgam valley of Kashmir on April 22.

Armed, masked terrorists ambushed the vacationers, demanding to know their religious affiliations, and singled out non-Muslims for execution. Tragically, 26 men – including Hindus and Christians, many of them newlyweds – were fatally shot in front of their wives, who were spared to convey the killers’ “message.”

Terror Group Claims Responsibility

Following the horrific attack, the Resistance Front, a terror group linked to the Pakistani jihadist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility.

LeT is part of the extensive terror network created by Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment. Unable to defeat India in conventional warfare, they assembled an array of armed proxies to destabilize the nation in Kashmir.

Pakistan’s Obsession with Kashmir

Pakistan’s relentless pursuit of Kashmir, which has fueled numerous conflicts, stems from an identity crisis that has plagued the nation since its inception.

Carved out of India in 1947 as a homeland for the subcontinent’s Muslims, the very premise of Pakistan’s creation – that Muslims and Hindus could not coexist – was immediately undermined when India chose to remain secular, embracing a non-denominational constitution.

As long as Kashmir, a Muslim-majority region, remains an integral part of a secular India, Pakistan’s self-perception as the true home of India’s Muslims remains unvalidated. This fuels an obsession with Kashmir, as Pakistan has initiated numerous conflicts to seize it from India, leading to a strategy of backing terrorist organizations.

• Wars with India
• Training Terrorist Organizations

However, the “root cause” extends beyond Kashmir itself. It lies in Pakistan’s unrelenting obsession.

The Crippling Effects of Military Focus

This obsession has not only resulted in Indian bloodshed but has also damaged and weakened Pakistan itself. Its armed forces, invoking an ever-present threat from “Hindu India,” have consistently commandeered a significant portion of the nation’s resources.

They have undermined the development of stable governance by removing virtually every civilian government before its term concluded.

Prior to the April attack in Kashmir, Pakistan’s military chief, Asim Munir, reaffirmed the commitment to seize Kashmir, urging lawmakers to mobilize the youth by emphasizing the perceived differences between Muslims and Hindus.

Such pronouncements would be condemned as prejudiced in any civilized nation. In Pakistan, it forms the very core of the state’s ideology.

Identity Crisis and Regional Ambitions

Established as a haven for India’s Muslim population, Pakistan has become consumed by the notion that it is the guardian of the Islamic faith. Presenting itself as an extension of Arabia in South Asia, it has even sent its pilots to engage in conflicts against Israel during the Arab-Israeli wars.

Historically, the population of Pakistan primarily consisted of lower-caste Hindus who converted – sometimes forcibly – to Islam.

India’s Shift in Policy Under Modi

For many years, India absorbed Pakistan’s provocations to maintain focus on its developmental objectives. India’s economy now dwarfs Pakistan’s, and it has helped millions escape poverty in recent years. However, there was a limit to India’s tolerance of Pakistan’s actions.

New Delhi’s approach shifted after Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist campaigning on a platform of retaliation against terror, became prime minister in 2014. Initially, Modi invested political capital in pursuing peaceful relations with Pakistan, despite holding the view that nuclear weapons should not grant impunity.

However, these efforts were met with two major terrorist assaults on India in 2016.

Military Strikes and the Request for Ceasefire

Compelled by his pledge to respond, Modi authorized military strikes. On May 7, Indian missiles struck multiple locations housing what New Delhi identified as “terrorist infrastructure.”

When Pakistani officials, visibly mourning at the funerals of individuals designated as terrorists by the United Nations, escalated the conflict, India launched attacks on numerous military sites deep within Pakistan. One target included an airbase situated near Pakistan’s military headquarters. Shortly thereafter, Pakistan requested a ceasefire from India.

Trump’s Role and US-India Relations

New Delhi insisted that negotiations did not involve American mediation. Many Indians who advocate for stronger ties with the US expressed dismay at Donald Trump’s eagerness to take credit for averting nuclear war, while seemingly equating India, the victim, with Pakistan, the instigator.

His apparent lack of understanding of this conflict is only surpassed by his belief in his ability to resolve it.

Continuing on this path risks damaging a relationship carefully cultivated over the course of 25 years by both Republican and Democratic administrations.