Importance Score: 65 / 100 🔴
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — A defunct Soviet-era spacecraft, launched to explore Venus in the 1970s, is anticipated to plummet uncontrollably back to Earth in the coming days.
Space debris specialists have noted it is challenging to accurately predict the landing site or determine how much of the half-ton metal structure might endure re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere
The Impending Re-entry of the Soviet Venus Probe
Dutch astronomer Marco Langbroek projects the failed spacecraft will re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere around May 10.
Estimating Speed and Potential Impact
- The velocity of the incoming object is estimated to be approximately 150 mph (242 kph) if it manages to stay intact.
- Despite the potential risks, Langbroek assures that concern is minimal.
“This object presents a relatively minimal risk,” Langbroek stated via email. “Even if it remains whole, the risk is akin to that posed by a random meteorite impact, which occurs several times annually.”
Comparative Risks and Probabilities
Langbroek further elaborated that the likelihood of the spacecraft directly striking someone or something remains quite low.”However, this possibility cannot be entirely dismissed.”
Background of the Soviet Venus Mission
The Soviet Union dispatched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972 as part of a series of missions targeted at Venus. However, due to a rocket failure, the spacecraft never managed to leave Earth’s orbit.
Details of the Venus Probes
- Most of the spacecraft disintegrated and fell back to Earth within a decade.
- However, Langbroek and his colleagues conjecture that the landing capsule—a spherical component around three feet (one meter) in diameter—has been circling the Earth in a highly elliptical orbit, progressively descending in altitude.
The Construction and Endurance of the Spacecraft
The likelihood exists that the over 1,000-pound (approximately 500-kilogram) spacecraft might survive re-entering the atmosphere. Designed to endure descent through the dense Venusian atmosphere composed mainly of carbon dioxide, the spacecraft exhibits robust construction, noted Langbroek, affiliated with Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Uncertainty Surrounding Survival
- Experts raise skepticism about the functionality of the parachute system after such an extended period.
- The integrity of the heat shield may also be compromised after enduring prolonged orbital exposure.
Theoretical Impact Scenarios
It would be preferable if the heat shield fails, ensuring it burns up upon atmospheric re-entry. However, if it holds, it will introduce a sizable metal object descending from the sky, according to Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Potential Landing Zones Across the Globe
The spacecraft could re-enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, spanning locations as distant as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, extending down to South America’s Cape Horn. That said, a significant portion of the globe is covered by oceans.”Hence, it is likely to conclude its trajectory in an oceanic region,” Langbroek predicted.